Showing posts with label America. Show all posts
Showing posts with label America. Show all posts
Thursday, March 04, 2010
Thursday, November 26, 2009
Happy Thanksgiving
Happy Thanksgiving to the people of America, or at least the few of you that that read this blog.
We do not celebrate Thanksgiving in the UK, but we know all about it from watching your sitcoms and hospital dramas. It seems like a fun day.
Have a lovely day.
We do not celebrate Thanksgiving in the UK, but we know all about it from watching your sitcoms and hospital dramas. It seems like a fun day.
Have a lovely day.
Tuesday, March 17, 2009
Obama Is For Federalised Europe
Some more pieces on the EU Federalist puzzle have fallen into place today with President Obama's public backing of a Federal Europe, we are about to see a change to the open foreign policy between the US and Europe.
Nile Gardiner writing in the Daily Telegraph, here, says that President Obama will be travelling to Europe in two weeks as the first President to be openly supportive of the creation of a Federal Europe. On his visit he will strongly back a European Security and Defence Policy.
With France very recently seeking to re-join the NATO fold and with NATO and the EU's command structures increasingly converging, the defence cornerstone of an EU Federalist state is being maneuvered into position.
It would seem that NATO will be the defence partner to a Federalise Europe, and when the time is right the America and Canada will withdraw from its command and logistics structure and Norway will then be forced to come into the EU or go it alone. Such a move may also secure Turkeys ascension into the Union.
This of course leaves the UK in a precarious position. With previous US presidents being cautious of a Franco-German led Federalised Europe, there has been sufficient support for NATO within North America and The UK Governments to present to the voters a counter-balanced international view. That is to say that The UK is looking further than the EU in it's diplomatic relationships.
However, in the last decade, and bound legally by The Lisbon Constitutional Treaty UK Foreign policy has become more EU centric,and dependant. It will cease to exist as a competency at the end of this year, as Foreign Policy will be headed by an EU International Commissioner, and policy within the EU will be considered internal.
So I make one more plea, perhaps upon deaf ears and to the already converted, but ask yourselves, when and where did you vote for a Federal Europe? Where and when did you vote for a Common European Defence Policy? Where and when did you vote to grant this (and previous) Governments the authority that we no longer wish to have self determination, and seek subservience to a post-democratic Union of Europe?
How many lines in the sand must we cross before The UK wakes up to what it is surrendering? We need an open and honest debate about the EU; it is in fact long over due. But we need it now, and yet despite European Elections coming soon there is no talk in our media and in our conversations about Federalising Europe. Do we not already have sufficient evidence that centralising decision making away from voters makes our society weaker and less cohesive?
If the EU and a Federalised Europe is truly the answer, then let it be decided by open debate and persuasion of opinions, rather than by subversive tactics and non-democratic means.
Part of the problem is a lack of coherent vision by alternative theories, but let me set some out. Let these mull around in your brain for the afternoon, and think about if you would prefer A Federal Europe, to one of the below. The other problem is that people opposed to further integration are divided by their positions on how little EU we should have. We need more cooperation between these people and groups.
Free Trade Europe. The EU is not the sum of all European Institutions, there is the Council of Europe and EFTA which are entirely separate. The UK is relatively comfortable within The Council of Europe, and loves EFTA, so why not be like Norway and get the hell out of the EU? It is the trading deal people did vote for in the 1970's without the Federalisation.
EFTA Countries are in the EEA (except Switzerland) but are free to conclude free trade agreements with other countries internationally.
Ask yourself how the UK can best trade its way out of this current recession and you will see that we need to be making independent trade deals with countries like China, India, Singapore and South Korea.
The Commonwealth. The UK has pretty much turned it's back on the Commonwealth and citizens of Commonwealth countries no longer enjoy the same privileges that were once available.
When the UK undertook a space programme in the 60's and early 70's we looked to Australia as partner. Not so long ago The British Empire reigned over a quarter of all people on our planet.
No one in the UK wants to return to Empirical Transnational Influence, there are many, many countries outside of Europe where we share more commonality in Politics, law making, language and history. Re-establishing The Commonwealth as a trade organisation would benefit the UK, and help some of the worlds poorest countries and people.
Anglosphere. As with the Commonwealth it would be a geo-political concept, yet more centralised around an even more tight knit, and familiar cultural basis. Would also allow for the United States to participate, and centre around the English Speaking countries of the world.
See also the Anglosphere Institute, here.
Open To Suggestions. Think you have a better idea? Let me, and everyone know in the comments.
Nile Gardiner writing in the Daily Telegraph, here, says that President Obama will be travelling to Europe in two weeks as the first President to be openly supportive of the creation of a Federal Europe. On his visit he will strongly back a European Security and Defence Policy.
With France very recently seeking to re-join the NATO fold and with NATO and the EU's command structures increasingly converging, the defence cornerstone of an EU Federalist state is being maneuvered into position.
It would seem that NATO will be the defence partner to a Federalise Europe, and when the time is right the America and Canada will withdraw from its command and logistics structure and Norway will then be forced to come into the EU or go it alone. Such a move may also secure Turkeys ascension into the Union.
This of course leaves the UK in a precarious position. With previous US presidents being cautious of a Franco-German led Federalised Europe, there has been sufficient support for NATO within North America and The UK Governments to present to the voters a counter-balanced international view. That is to say that The UK is looking further than the EU in it's diplomatic relationships.
However, in the last decade, and bound legally by The Lisbon Constitutional Treaty UK Foreign policy has become more EU centric,and dependant. It will cease to exist as a competency at the end of this year, as Foreign Policy will be headed by an EU International Commissioner, and policy within the EU will be considered internal.
So I make one more plea, perhaps upon deaf ears and to the already converted, but ask yourselves, when and where did you vote for a Federal Europe? Where and when did you vote for a Common European Defence Policy? Where and when did you vote to grant this (and previous) Governments the authority that we no longer wish to have self determination, and seek subservience to a post-democratic Union of Europe?
How many lines in the sand must we cross before The UK wakes up to what it is surrendering? We need an open and honest debate about the EU; it is in fact long over due. But we need it now, and yet despite European Elections coming soon there is no talk in our media and in our conversations about Federalising Europe. Do we not already have sufficient evidence that centralising decision making away from voters makes our society weaker and less cohesive?
If the EU and a Federalised Europe is truly the answer, then let it be decided by open debate and persuasion of opinions, rather than by subversive tactics and non-democratic means.
Part of the problem is a lack of coherent vision by alternative theories, but let me set some out. Let these mull around in your brain for the afternoon, and think about if you would prefer A Federal Europe, to one of the below. The other problem is that people opposed to further integration are divided by their positions on how little EU we should have. We need more cooperation between these people and groups.
Free Trade Europe. The EU is not the sum of all European Institutions, there is the Council of Europe and EFTA which are entirely separate. The UK is relatively comfortable within The Council of Europe, and loves EFTA, so why not be like Norway and get the hell out of the EU? It is the trading deal people did vote for in the 1970's without the Federalisation.
EFTA Countries are in the EEA (except Switzerland) but are free to conclude free trade agreements with other countries internationally.
Ask yourself how the UK can best trade its way out of this current recession and you will see that we need to be making independent trade deals with countries like China, India, Singapore and South Korea.
The Commonwealth. The UK has pretty much turned it's back on the Commonwealth and citizens of Commonwealth countries no longer enjoy the same privileges that were once available.
When the UK undertook a space programme in the 60's and early 70's we looked to Australia as partner. Not so long ago The British Empire reigned over a quarter of all people on our planet.
No one in the UK wants to return to Empirical Transnational Influence, there are many, many countries outside of Europe where we share more commonality in Politics, law making, language and history. Re-establishing The Commonwealth as a trade organisation would benefit the UK, and help some of the worlds poorest countries and people.
Anglosphere. As with the Commonwealth it would be a geo-political concept, yet more centralised around an even more tight knit, and familiar cultural basis. Would also allow for the United States to participate, and centre around the English Speaking countries of the world.
See also the Anglosphere Institute, here.
Open To Suggestions. Think you have a better idea? Let me, and everyone know in the comments.
Monday, March 02, 2009
Who Will Pay For The EU?
Eastern European countries gave a bleak assessment of their economic prospects yesterday with Hungary talking of 5m unemployed turning up in Western EU Countries looking for work and benefits. Though the remark was aimed at Germany, it is worth remembering that only Britain and Ireland have fully opened our borders up to accession countries.
The Times Headline today speaks of a New 'Iron Curtain' as a plea for €190bn from the West to the East of Europe was immediately rejected. The strength of the Union may soon be tested.
This is all very interesting. I wrote about the stability of the EURO recently and I pointed out that in the event of any crisis, it is likely that politics will supersede economics in any decisions that are made.
The impetus of any Eastern EU and any EURO bailout lies with Germany. The EU is based largely on German plans and finances. If a bailout is needed it will probably fall on the Germans to raise and guarantee the required capital. However, it is not clear to what extent the German people are willing to prop up the EU, and so it will be a rocky few months.
Germany has not yet ratified the Lisbon Constitutional Treaty, and a potential €uber-billion bailout will not help the German political classes force it through any quicker. In fact the dialogue has changed somewhat and some of those raising opposition to the Treaty are looking at the possibility of opt-outs and a break mechanism so as to limit the costs to the EUs biggest contributors. If a succession of Economies began to collapse in Eastern Europe the IMF may not have sufficient reserve to react.
Absent from all of this are Britain and France. France may make a token contribution if all others do, but Britain is getting deeper and deeper into debt through borrowing in an effort to kick-start the financial industry. Germany will not act alone if an Eastern EU bailout is needed, and no one else, including Britain will likely have much in the way of the funds to help. Personally I hope we are not asked, because I do not trust this government to overstretch yet further our increasingly fragile economy.
I would imagine any German led deal would require two conditions. Firstly the big contributors to the EU will need to stump up a share to make it easier to sell to the German people and secondly the Germans then may force some form of direct taxation on the people of the EU to guarantee The EU it's first direct revenues. The harmonising and central collection of VAT has been mooted in the past.
I wouldn't mind making a prediction, well a pushing a theory really. If we look at my previous post, and at the events of the weekend it looks more and more (to me) like we are seeing the first real tensions on EU membership. If the Eastern European Countries need a bailout then they may need to look to Russia or America, and the necessity and politics of any deal may preclude continued EU membership.
Likewise if Ireland's economy was to crash, they might find themselves required to act outside of the Central Banks economic rules, and if things get really bad may need to leave the EU altogether. There has always been a large proportion of people in the UK that would welcome much looser ties as well. So what could result is the formalisation of a Central European State and around the edges those exiting member nations may turn back to trade agreements, rather than Union membership. The umbrella of EFTA membership may allow for this to happen with as little pain as possible.
Those nations who have long yearned for their superstate will get their wishes and can have all the trappings of their Federalist dreams, they have a currency already, and all the buildings and courts are in place. They may even be prepared to help Italy and Spain as part of the deal. It could eventually be a win/win situation as those countries who look most in trouble are those where a dissenting voice to a Federal Europe are most heard, UK/Ireland, Scandinavia and Eastern Europe.
The Times Headline today speaks of a New 'Iron Curtain' as a plea for €190bn from the West to the East of Europe was immediately rejected. The strength of the Union may soon be tested.
This is all very interesting. I wrote about the stability of the EURO recently and I pointed out that in the event of any crisis, it is likely that politics will supersede economics in any decisions that are made.
The impetus of any Eastern EU and any EURO bailout lies with Germany. The EU is based largely on German plans and finances. If a bailout is needed it will probably fall on the Germans to raise and guarantee the required capital. However, it is not clear to what extent the German people are willing to prop up the EU, and so it will be a rocky few months.
Germany has not yet ratified the Lisbon Constitutional Treaty, and a potential €uber-billion bailout will not help the German political classes force it through any quicker. In fact the dialogue has changed somewhat and some of those raising opposition to the Treaty are looking at the possibility of opt-outs and a break mechanism so as to limit the costs to the EUs biggest contributors. If a succession of Economies began to collapse in Eastern Europe the IMF may not have sufficient reserve to react.
Absent from all of this are Britain and France. France may make a token contribution if all others do, but Britain is getting deeper and deeper into debt through borrowing in an effort to kick-start the financial industry. Germany will not act alone if an Eastern EU bailout is needed, and no one else, including Britain will likely have much in the way of the funds to help. Personally I hope we are not asked, because I do not trust this government to overstretch yet further our increasingly fragile economy.
I would imagine any German led deal would require two conditions. Firstly the big contributors to the EU will need to stump up a share to make it easier to sell to the German people and secondly the Germans then may force some form of direct taxation on the people of the EU to guarantee The EU it's first direct revenues. The harmonising and central collection of VAT has been mooted in the past.
I wouldn't mind making a prediction, well a pushing a theory really. If we look at my previous post, and at the events of the weekend it looks more and more (to me) like we are seeing the first real tensions on EU membership. If the Eastern European Countries need a bailout then they may need to look to Russia or America, and the necessity and politics of any deal may preclude continued EU membership.
Likewise if Ireland's economy was to crash, they might find themselves required to act outside of the Central Banks economic rules, and if things get really bad may need to leave the EU altogether. There has always been a large proportion of people in the UK that would welcome much looser ties as well. So what could result is the formalisation of a Central European State and around the edges those exiting member nations may turn back to trade agreements, rather than Union membership. The umbrella of EFTA membership may allow for this to happen with as little pain as possible.
Those nations who have long yearned for their superstate will get their wishes and can have all the trappings of their Federalist dreams, they have a currency already, and all the buildings and courts are in place. They may even be prepared to help Italy and Spain as part of the deal. It could eventually be a win/win situation as those countries who look most in trouble are those where a dissenting voice to a Federal Europe are most heard, UK/Ireland, Scandinavia and Eastern Europe.
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