DD

I have not been alone on the blogosphere in pointing out how the current electoral set up is almost criminally unfairly balanced towards Labour.  Very soon (May 7th to be precise) I think the full effect of just how unfair the electoral boundaries have become is about to come slamming home and it could be the wider electorate who are being courted like never before that will be demanding some answers when the results are being digested after the election.

With the Lib Dems polling above Labour today it would seem Labour's Plan B is working.  If the Lib Dems do well, it is the Tories that suffer more; Labour get in via the back door.

For example, if all three parties get exactly 30% of the popular vote, as a voter it would be fair for me to expect a roughly equal number of seats to be allocated to each give or take a reasonable margin of error.

Have a look at the UK Polling Report seat calculator, which is calculating seats based on a uniform swing which is admittedly is a little flawed, but paints a compelling picture none-the-less.  At 30% each, which is not beyond the realms of possibility looking at the current polls we would get the following outcome:

Labour 305 seats (-51)

Conservative 208 seats (+10)

Liberal Democrats 106 seats (+44)

Others 13 Seats (+1)

Northern Ireland 18 Seats (NC)

Do you see what I am seeing?  Not only do Labour come out massively on top despite attaining the same share of the vote as Conservatives and the Lib Dems, but even if we combined the Tory and Lib Dem vote, they could not form a minority government between them even if they wanted one with their combined tally.  Net result, Gordon clings on.

What about another scenario.  Let's give The Tories and the Lib Dems 32% each, and leave Labour on 26%.  Here's what comes out of the seat calculator:

Labour 252 seats (-104)

Conservative 243 seats (+45)

Liberal Democrats 124 seats (+62)

Others 13 Seats (+1)

Northern Ireland 18 Seats (NC)

Despite Labour potentially polling 6% less than the Tories and 6% less than the Lib Dems, they could end up with the most seats in the new Parliament. Net result, Gordon clings on.

It is the Electoral Commission who has held the responsibility for Electoral Boundary reviews can by no measure claim success for this distortion.  Such happenings are not chance occurances or accidents. 

Here's the thing, don't go knocking on their door on May 7th because they've just handed over responsibility for the boundaries to a brand new QUANGO called the Local Government Boundary Commission on 1st April 2010.  The body responsible for the stitch up will insist it is no longer anything to do with them, and this new body will rightly claim they had nothing to do with it.  We will be afforded No Questions, No Answers, No Accountability.  One body set up to provide a stitch up quietly melts away where its actions can no longer be called to account and a new QUANGO takes its place at great cost to us both financially and electorally.

Boundaries aside there is another point.  Postal Votes will be going out soon and I believe they can arrive between one to two weeks before the actual election day; so the "others" and the Conservatives had better get their arguments sharpened real quick if they are serious about kicking Brown out.    Postal voting is becoming more popular so there are some serious votes to be won and lost at this next debate because those ballots could be in the post before the last debate comes around. 

If the Tory plan is to give Nick Clegg more rope in the hope he hangs himself then they are going to lose because time is just about up and I am not convinced they understand this.  If Lib Dem support is a novelty, if it is a whim then the Tories need to know that they do not have the luxury of time. 

Cameron's term can be characterised because of his seemingly hubristic belief that when Labour fail, people will move to the Conservatives; so he moved the Tories left, in an attempt to seize the centre ground.  In the last week however, that centre ground went Orange.  Since last Thursday Brown seems to have retreated into the bunker and the Conservatives appear to have lost that little bit of momentum and confidence they had just started to get in the lead up to that first debate.  Fraser Nelson seems to be making a better case for the Conservatives and is more visible in the last few days than David Cameron.

There are plenty more twists and turns left in this campaign yet.

ITV / Comres Poll

The first poll after the debates is out and there is a big twist

Conservative - 36%
Lib Dem - 35%
Labour - 24%
Others - 5%

The two big questions are, how solid is this for the Lib Dems and how would a General Election affect Parliament in terms of seats?

I think it is still hung parliament territory, but with the Lib Dems and Labour much closer together with the Conservatives way out in front.  Tellingly, Labour face a massive electoral advantage, so an 11% advantage for the Lib Dems and 12% to the Conservatives may still not be enough to relegate them to third in terms of seats.

The good news, perhaps now for as many as 76% of us is that the Socialists and Gordon Brown are now on the fast train to oblivion.

Update:  Oh Dear, the above is the "unweighted polling" and Adam Boulton on Sky says it leaked via Twitter when an ITV Journalist tweeted the raw data.

Update 2:  A lesson for us all.  Comres have rushed out the "real" results.

Conservatives - 35%
Labour - 28%
Lib Dem - 24%
Others - 13%

The weighting is done to ensure that voting weight for things like age and race samples from raw data are taken to match (or massaged) national samples... all in all, weighted polls are much more reliable than raw data (which is why the media pay for professional sampling to be done)

Overall, still in hung Parliament territory, with the Conservatives in the high 200's, Labour in Mid 200's and the Lib Dems's gaining to about the 70's. 

There are more twists and turns to come, but the story could be (with more polling) that the Lib Dems are starting to take Labour voters; it is the Conservatives that need to do this for an overall win. 

Poll Expectations

I expect the Conservatives will do well in the polls this week, especially after Gordon Brown revealled he will not quit if he fails to get Labour a majority.

The Tories have described it as a "terrifying" prospect... Couldn't agree more!

Now 44% Want Hung Parliament

The Guardian/ICM poll has been released early tonight - or at least I should say I am acustomed to seeing new polls at 10pm rather than at tea time.

The scores on the doors:

Tellingly the Guardian open their report with this line:

The prime minister's deep unpopularity is continuing to harm Labour's election chances...

It is a bizarre situation we are in today, the Guardian does not want Gordon Brown but does want a Labour win, Core Tories distrust David Cameron and hope that either he will offer some more Conservative policies, and are prepared despite their deep dislike of the Prime Minister to lend their votes to others or stay home because David Cameron is not Tory enough for their tastes.  The British Government that rightly fought to retain a degree of fiscal and monetary independence from Brussels because we feared that association with the EU would ruin the UK economy and yet it transpires that the EC is ready to issue a warning to Britain that it's sums don't add up and we need to cut our debt deeper and faster.  For the first time ever I find myself agreeing with the Commission.

Indeed we are in bizarro world. 

And it all leads up to what I have written in the past and have more polling on today that people are looking to engineer a hung Parliament because we ain't happy with what's on offer and do not wish to grant any party 5 years.  Sunday's polls put it at 34% in favour of a stalemate, today's ICM has it at 44%.  The Guardian know that Labour made the mistake in not actually having the stomach to oust Brown, and it is hurting them in the polls still; but the door should not be considered slammed shut for the Conservatives they can move and increase their share of the vote still.

Certainly the first party to strike a real chord could make big gains.  Labour seem content to Tory bash, and make announcements of policy based on how they feel they can frame or more often deflect the arguments during Prime Ministers Questions.  The House of Lords reform announcement is clearly to set up Browns attack this Wednesday.

The Guardians mood tonight stems from the personal polls between David Cameron and Gordon Brown where David Cameron spanks Brown in every category including a 14 point lead on the question of who would make a more competent Prime Minister.  Cameron has a 31 point lead on the man who has the support of his party which given the plots against Brown is unsurprising.

It is of course crazy that the Conservatives are polling 40% to Labour's 31% and stare still at a Hung Parliament; further more it is deeply unfair.  For all the talk of a Hung Parliament, it is shocking that this is not a more prominent story in the papers.

What The People Want

A few days ago I posted:

In the absence any Conservatism from the Conservative Party and in despair at Labour the voters are seemingly looking for a do over. We are not getting the options we want or need so we are engineering a hung Parliament as a vote of no confidence in both Labour and the Conservatives and we are hoping one or both will come out the other side and start listening to what people are asking for.

Now it seems the Sunday Telegraph has some polling that shows I am on the right track:

A surprising 34 per cent of voters think that Britain’s interests would “best be served” if the election resulted, as most polls now predict, in a hung parliament, despite warnings that such an outcome would gravely hamper the country’s ability to recover from its economic woes and record deficit. More than half (56 per cent) want one party to win a clear majority

.
I don't think it is surprising at all.  The problem that most commentators not writing from loyalty to Labour or the Conservatives have cottoned on to is that neither party is presenting a compelling case to be allowed a majority.  This should be coupled with the knowledge that Labour has abused it's mandate in many ways, not least on smokers and on the Lisbon referendum that did not happen.  We favour the Conservatives more, because of distrust of Gordon Brown and Labour, but we do not want the Conservatives on present form and message to have control of Parliament.

I still think the Conservatives will win with a narrow majority, but I think David Cameron is making things tougher for himself with some of his decisions and policies.  It could ebb away, as I said before they could snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.  I know what I want to hear, and have been vocal about it; as have others. 

Conservatives are out on the doorsteps now, I hope some of the messages filter back to CCHQ.  The polling shows that David Cameron is trusted more than Gordon Brown on the Economy, on the NHS and on Schools I think if David Cameron came out and gave the base a better pledge on the EU, was clear that he intends to substantially roll back the size of the state (and our tax burden), offered a public debate on English votes and devolution including a dialogue on a split from the union and agreed to put the 50p tax rate in question he will win comfortably.  The EU issue will not happen with what he and more recently William Hague have said, but the rest is there and available to him. The question is, will the go for it or not?

None Of The Above Please

So we are to have a budget in two weeks time, or at least we are to have Alistair Darling on TV in two weeks time telling us how he is going to spent yet more borrowed cash on swing voters in order to buy Labour another election.

Here is some of what Gordon Brown said today:

"We are weathering the storm; now is no time to turn back.

"We will hold to our course. And we will complete this mission. We have got through this storm together but there are still substantial risks ahead.

"There will be bumps in the road. And I believe the only way to overcome them is by displaying the same strength and resolve as we did during the crisis."

He then (with a straight face) declared that he had the “character” to lead Britain to economic recovery and attacked the Tories for planning to cut spending and bring us back into recession.

I am glad Gordon Brown mentioned his character because it comes up time and time again and two things are immediately and resoundingly evident to everybody not wearing a red rosette (and too many that do).

1. Gordon Brown is an indecisive bottler, incapable of making tough decisions. In fact, I would suspect that he has problems taking the not so grand decisions also. So he has surrounded himself with bullies and blowhards who by being vocal and aggressive to others have fooled the dim-witted PM into believing that they are decision makers who can compensate for and disguise his own failings.

2. Gordon Brown is prepared to put The Labour Party, The EU and himself before the general welfare of the UK. He is a selfish man in the midst of constructing what he likes to call a new system of world governance and never once have people been consulted. History will not view Gordon Brown kindly, nor should it.

Clearly his attribution asymmetry is way-off if the bullying allegations are to be believed, which I think the overwhelming majority of people do. In success, people will naturally attribute success to their own abilities and talents, but in failure we look to attribute this to external factors and bad luck. Other peoples fortune is down to their good luck and others failure are down to their mistakes. So when the debt bubble that Gordon Brown helped to create came crashing down it was all the fault of the American Sub-prime market. When the expenses scandal broke it was the fault of the Conservatives 1983 legislation and a retired pensioner. When he inherited a golden economy borne out of the backbreaking labour of the Conservatives self employment revolution he stood at the dispatch box and proclaimed to have ended “boom and bust”.

If the election is decided on Gordon Browns Character there will be a funeral for the Labour Party on 7th May.

It is telling that despite everybody in the country being very aware of Gordon Brown and Labours failures that the Conservatives are not 30 points clear and that we are not talking about the Liberal Democrats assuming the mantle as the new second party of the UK. I have written before of my dislike and distrust for the Conservatives new direction.

Janet Daley has been having one of those tediously boring back and forth’s with Danny Finkelstein that generally is not interesting to anybody but those involved, however this one may have (finally) reached an interesting conclusion vis-à-vis the modern Conservative Party. The Tory modernisers it would seem have been hired from the New Labour School of misdirection. They seized upon some polling which suggested that Conservative Policy on Immigration during the 2005 election was deemed popular or welcomed in the polls, but only when those being questioned did not know that it was a conservative policy. When the Conservative brand or Tory name used, people disassociated with it. This was of course to do with the BBC witch (or Warlock?) hunt on Michael Howard and the BBCs rather successful attempts to show all Conservatives as bigots.

When telepromterless Cameron landed in CCHQ sans tie and pin-stripped suit the “modernisers” took the Immigration Polling and used it as the basis for the need to “detoxify” the brand. Thus ensued photo shoots with Huskies, policy meetings with Bob Geldof, and explains why Cameron was in East Africa whilst his Witney Constituency was under water. The Party was hijacked by the policy wonks on the basis of a poll that showed that if the BBC’s editorial policy is biased and vindictive enough the Toris wil flinch; clearly the BBC has too much control over the TV News arena in the UK. So instead of picking a fight with their mates at the BBC Cameron the new team were given their own dodgy dossier of research (also done by the BBC) that showed that people don’t know or care about things like “back benchers” they don’t even know what terms like that would mean. They care about gay weddings and Eastenders and thus the Conservatives need to modernise and use pollsters and rock stars in their policy formulation, and stop relying on voters and party members to tell them what they want. Janet edges us to the conclusion that therefore as a result we now have a Conservative Party fit for the post democratic era. Not as she says because the whole conservative brand was tarnished, but simply because of the public view on Immegration after the BBC assault.

The problems of course begin with and end with So What? This would have been useful information two years ago or even a year ago, but with Cameron tight lipped on policy back then there would have been hardly any concern from the grass-roots. It is the emergence of Team Dave’s direction and the recent u-turns and revisions that have planted the red-toryistic concerns in voters’ minds. So it doesn’t really matter so much now how the Conservative Party got where it is today there is an election in six weeks. The decision needs to be whether to vote for it or not. The perplexing question is having taken the Conservative Party away from conservative voters, will a Tory Win be used as confirmation of the new Tory Brand and strategy thus abandoning Conservative voters for at least a generation or would a defeat or hung parliament force the party to where the Conservative Grass-roots are?

There are some in the Conservative Party that are just now realising why Tony Blair won in 1997 and are determined to use their new found knowledge in an election in 2010. It is only because there is an empty suit in 10 Downing Street that they are not being spanked completely in the polls. Tony Blair would have turned the polls already – he would have done it a year ago and we would be into a fourth Labour term.

In the absence any Conservatism from the Conservative Party and in despair at Labour the voters are seemingly looking for a do over. We are not getting the options we want or need so we are engineering a hung Parliament as a vote of no confidence in both Labour and the Conservatives and we are hoping one or both will come out the other side and start listening to what people are asking for. We need and want a severe reduction in the size of the state and of our overall tax burden, we want our finance put in order, we want a tax break to make the cost of living in this poorly governed country easier, we want fuel bills to go down not up, we want to smoke in the pub and we want government to concentrate on governing, rather than what I put in my wheelie bin.

For the benefit of David Cameron’s aides I have translated this message into some graphs that may be confused with polling data and therefore can be slipped into the radar as a hint to the current Tory Leadership about where their current problems lie.

Tories Down To 5 Point Lead

As per You Gov and UK Polling Report.


Perhaps David Cameron will reconsider his EU Referendum policy now.... No?

So what will the magic number be I wonder.

Voter Confidence

Gosh, we are lucky aren't we!....  I have lifted these numbers from UK Polling Report after they did all of the work and analysed last night's You Gov Poll commissioned by the Sun.

Asked which party the statement "The kind of society it wants is broadly the kind of society I want"
Conservative 33%
Labour 29%

On Being "Led by people with real ability"
Conservatives 24%
Labour 18%

On "Prepared to take the tough and unpopular decisions"
Conservatives 27%
Labour 21%

Finally on the negative statement "It seems to chop and change all of the time, you can never be sure what it stands for"
Conservative 23%
Labour 25%

There are some more results at the other end of the link to UK Polling Report on the MP expenses scandal and on MP confidence in general.  I guess in part, poll numbers can be quite low as we are a multi-party country so outlook and allegiance is spread wider than the two main parties.  The Tories are ahead, but it's hardly Champagne time that only 24% think they are led by people with real ability or that they are considered less wishy-washy by 2% fewer people. 

A pox on all their houses indeed.  After the General Election with a new House of MPs there need to be some serious efforts to open up the system and begin to regain public trust.  I think just opening the system up so that all public expenditure can be checked by the public would bring about a big chunk of good will, even if that means more wrong-doing is exposed.  It is the system that does not work, and if people have faith that their money is not being wasted and that it can be checked up on there can be a way forward.  More of the same and public confidence will pass the point of no return.

Right Wing Britain

The British Social Attitudes Survey from NatCen is published today and it is showing that the British Public are trending to the political right in the polls. Notably, for the first time in since 1989 more people described themselves as Conservative voters than as a Labour voter.

Here are three interesting write ups which make for interesting reading:

Tim Whitehead - Britain Has Grown More Conservative Under Labour

Janet Daley - Public Opinion Moves To The Right

Jerome Taylor - On The Right And Right-On: A Portrait Of Britain Today

And in case you haven't the time or motivation, here are a few of the talking points from the surveys results.

• An increasing number of people are abandoning the idea that The Government is the right place and tool for targeting inequality in society.
• People are dropping traditional party lines and looking for the adoption of individualistic approaches to politics and the economy.
• 32% Say they are Conservative voters, 27% say they are Labour voters.
• People want a more inclusive and tolerant society, but favour a reduction in the state and tax cuts as the way to achieve this.
• Only 40% questioned now support higher taxes. Was 62% in in 1997. Just over 50% think taxes should remain static.
• Only 40% favour the use of tax as a method of wealth redistribution. Was 53% in 1994.
• Only 55% now say the taxpayer and the Government should provide those without a job a good standard of living. Was 85% 20 years ago. Only 21% think unemployment benefits are too low.
• People believe lone parents with children of school age should have work conditions attached to benefit.
• 70% of people think "we should respect all religions", including 60% who class themselves as non-believers.
• Only 56% consider it a civic duty to vote in General Elections.

Initial conclusions.
1. David Cameron's Conservatives are locating themselves on the centre ground of 10 years ago, with the suggestion rather than the promise of tax cuts, Modern Britain is ready to be wooed by a more right-wing Conservative approach.
2. It comes as no surprise to those of us not based in Westminster to know that Labour is discredited and disliked through most of the land. Yes they will maintain pockets of support in traditional areas, and yes London is probably still more attached to Labour than the rest of Southern England. But, the survey confirms peoples attitudes are shifting away from the Socialist mindset the country is believed to have had at heart. It is a reduction in the State that is sought, with compassion for those who need help in mind, people want a different approach to society's problems. The Left will need to come up with a new model for Government would it wish to return to power in Westminster.
3. 41% of people do not consider themselves as a Conservative or Labour voter.

New Poll Tells A Different Story For The Tories

From Politics Home, a poll by Angus Reid

Conservatives - 39%

Labour - 22%

Liberal Democrats - 21%

Others - 18%

This poll would give somewhere around a 170 majority to the Conservatives demonstrating how crazy the current boundaries disparity is, and how different pollsters are able to predict wildly different political scenarios every few days by using slightly different methods and weighting.  This is a new polling firm, and a healthy 2,000 were sampled.  UK Polling Report already has written this up, and they confirm that the pollsters weighting disadvantages Labour, but only very slightly.

Right, now the interesting point on this poll, 18% is a hefty number for the "others" which has generally been sitting anywhere between 12% and 15% for a while, except for a few weeks around the EU elections.  I suspect the biggest chunk goes to the SNP, but what is the UKIP number?  That is going to be telling in the next election as potentially 2 in 3 new UKIP voters will be drawn away from the Conservatives; or at least, that would be my prediction. 

I wonder what the number is that UKIP need to poll before the Conservatives start to look over their shoulders (if they are running polls that splits the "others", and I think it is a safe assumption that they do).  I think from memory UKIP polled a little over 2% at the last General Election, so anything around 5% would be I think a fair improvement at this point, but anything higher still must be a concern for their opponents.  And not just with the Tories; UKIP will be looking to unseat Liberal Democrats in the South as well.  UKIP will not be winning this election, but they are looking like the party that costs others key seats at this election.  They don't need a leader to be out campaigning for them, especially when "Cast-Iron Dave*" keeps driving the EUsceptics moving away from voting Conservative.

170 Majority at the top end, and a niggling annoyance growing at the other.  When If the Conservative number contracts, we will have a very interesting story.

I look forward to reading other bloggers opinions on this, but in the morning.



*This seems to be the settled nickname for him on the blogosphere now.

Public Chose Cuts When Faced With Dividing Line

A poll from the Guardian and ICM that will be published tomorrow shows that the Conservatives are winning the argument with the Public for spending cuts.

In total, 64% think the government should cut spending against 28% who want more increases. The numbers get more interesting when you look at voting intentions as 55% of people likely to vote Labour and 57% who are likely to back the Liberal Democrats would like to see reductions in state spending. Amongst likely Conservative voters the number rises to 73%.

It is a damning indictment of the Governments spending strategies as the public feel the pinch in the height of this recession and look feel the Government has spent too much and are worried that the Government seems to want to spend even more.

It is a personal slap in the face for Gordon Brown, both as it means the public reject the former Iron-Chancellors assessment for the best course of recovery; but also because it shows that Gordon Brown’s efforts to set this as the dividing line will backfire when it becomes the cornerstone for all national debate.

Overall voting intentions show the Conservatives on 41%, Labour on 27% and the Liberal Democrats on 20% which puts the polls back roughly where they were before the EU Election got rolling.

I have introduced a poll to the blog, what do you think should happen to public spending, vote using the poll on the right of the blog, but feel free to elaborate in the comments field.

Get Gordon Out - PLEASE!!

Something has to give. An unelected Prime Minister with the confidence of less that one in five voters does not provide a platform for governing, or electoral mandate. Add in a weak and widely discredited Parliament and the only person left who does not want an election is the guy who is supposed to call for one.

Here's another thought. Over the past decade, probably the most hotly debated issue on the political left was the Iraq war. There are other big issues, but the Iraq War probably drew more debate and vitriol than any other issue. The focal point of those arguments was actually the man at the figure head, George W Bush. Despite an attempt to impeach him and efforts veto his defence plans in Iraq, at no point (that I have been able to track via Google) did he fall below 30% in an opinion poll. Gordon Brown is on 18% and sliding. I accept this is an apples and oranges analogy, with fewer alternative voting options in the States - but the numbers still strike me as poignant. The former President has recently polled 41% favourable / 57 unfavourable on retrospective opinion via CNN. Gordon Brown will probably sell his cabinet down the river for a mid-twenty poll vote now.

There was with Mr Dubya's departure a sense of re-birth and refreshed thinking during and following the US election. President Obama was being heralded, and even former Republican Cabinet members were backing him. The same is true of the UK today. Only an election can heal our wounds now. The people of the United Kingdom separated by thousands of regional dialects and local traditions, we are a union of separate nations; there has never been a feeling so widely shared by so many within this fraught union as the outright embarrassment felt when Gordon Brown makes a public appearance and opens his mouth (or god forbid, grins).

I do not see Brown recovering and I really hope that those attending the Parliamentary Labour Party meeting tonight, and those Cabinet members who know they are out of their jobs next week have a long hard think. The people want an election, the media wants an election, anyone standing down as an MP and holding on for a pay-off wants an election - the Labour Party is going to suffer long term damage without an election. So, why not have an election? The issue needs to be forced, but it will not be forced by opposition, it will need to be from within the Parliamentary Labour Party.

It would seem to me the lack of an heir-apparent is the biggest stumbling block, but someone is going to have to step forwards, and that person will have to put their personal ambitions to the side and put the good of the Labour Party and the country ahead of such ambitions.

Today the Chancellor gave up the fight, is there anyone left in the Labour Party who is up for one?

Labour On 23% Nationally

Following on from my post on the EU and local polling, I have just seen in the Mail on Sunday that Gordon Browns Labour Party would poll just 23% in a General Election - below the previous lowest of 23.5% once polled for Michael Foot.

In the same article 52% of people polled say that Brown should go and they suggest that Alan Johnson and Jack Straw are the favourite to succeed him, but that Alan Johnson would be much more popular in the Parliamentary Party. They also suggest that Mr Straws 8,009 majority in Blackburn may not be enough to guarantee him a return to Parliament next term with any sub 10,000 majority seat in play for other parties to capture.

The print media, the opinion polls, the bloggers and increasingly his own MP's are all in favour of the Prime Minister stepping down. Less popular than Michael Foot - I might copyright that as I think the Conservatives next media campaign has just been written. [Just though for a second - they can have it, for free!]

Could tomorrow be Black Monday for Brown?

Opinion Poll - Labour In Third Place, Brown Lacks Grass-Root Support

Looking over at the Times today I have seen the first opinion poll information for the EU elections has been published, the Times analysis is here.

The talking points are that Gordon Browns Labour Party are heading for third place in both the EU and local elections, dropping 9% to the Conservatives. Where The Lib Dems are holding firm on 27%, Labours drop will see them fall into third. UKIP still sit fourth, and the much written about BNP are seventh, still behind the Green Party, just. Jury Team seem not to have yet registered any support.

I would suggest that if the Governing Party is finishing third in local and EU elections it is a clear revocation of the flimsy mandate that currently exists. A Third place finish will see the UK in a position whereby the PM is unelected in a national ballot and by his own party; the governing party is legislating to the opposite as set out in its own election manifesto and a nation whose electorate have voted a clear indication of no confidence in the governing party.

Add in to this the current expenses revelations, which may all be out in the public domain by next week, but the story will run and run. There is a lot of MP's who's chief weakness in campaigning for re-election either has graced the pages of the Daily Telegraph this week, or will do so in the next few days. More and more cabinet members are looking very uncertain to be returned the longer Gordon Brown stays in charge.

David Cameron and Nick Clegg have in recent weeks shown that they are both much more in touch with the mood of the country than the PM. This weekend has seen the cabinet take a stubborn line on MPs expenses. This was unfortunately to be expected. However, if a different tact is adopted by David Cameron he would probably find even more favour with the country.

This is one of those odd issues where he could be more appealing to core Labour voters than a Labour PM. Working class Labour wards are some of the poorest in the country, they share the wider disdain in these expenses revelations. As I said before, this is a class issue, but not along the standard class lines; it is the political classes versus everybody else. The You Gov Poll showed that 24% of Labour voters think Gordon Brown is doing badly, only 7% think he is doing very well. I repeat, that is Labour voters, not overall. Just 7% of Labour voters think he is doing very well.

Like I also said recently, there is a feeling that it is not so much when Gordon goes now, but a question of who it will be that triggers the leadership bid. The Chief Whip seems to have lost all authority and that means we will see more and more disillusion and rebellion from with the Labour ranks. Charles Clarke seems to want to compete but has not got the support from the Parliamentary Party, but, others may have that support if they decided to challenge.

A few other points from the poll.

41% of Labour, 51% of Lib Dem and 70% of Conservative voters would back a 20% cut in public spending similar to the one announced in the 1990's in Canada.

There seems to be very little support from any party-aligned voters to the governments Royal Mail proposals and much support for the right to allowing Gurkha's settle in the UK when they have served in the protection of the UK.

EU Opinion Polls?

I have a question, has anybody seen, or know of any published opinion polls for the upcoming EU elections?

Only there is a month to go and I do not believe that I have seen one yet, and what with talk that it might be used as a catalyst to detach our Prime Minister, and see them fall to fourth place in the EU polls, I am a little surprised that I have not seen any polling data.

Could someone point me in the right direction?

ComRes Poll

ComRes poll for tomorrows Independant.

Conservatives 43% (+2)
Labour 28% (-4)
Lib Dems 16% (-1)

The 15% lead translates to a likely majority to the Conservatives of around 84 Seats

Election Thoughts (1)

Lots of twists and turns this week, and there have been nudges and winks indicating that there will be, or won't be, or will be or won't be......... a General Election in February.

Twists and turns isn't the start of it, on two occasions this week I have sat down and tried to put some thoughts onto the blog about where this all might be leading, but news kept breaking taking the story in a different direction.

I do not think there will be an election in February, I of course can not be certain, but I wouldn't completely rule out an election in 2009. By early 2010, general consensus is (for what ever that is worth) that the economy will be bottoming out and the pain of the credit crunch will hitting families hard. Additionally, having run down the clock on a full five year term, Labour know the public psyche recall Brown "bottling it" in 2008.

Having said that, February 2009 could be, just maybe, the best possible time to have an election, if you are a Labour MP, Minister or of course Prime Minister. Look ahead, in your own mind to what we know, or strongly suspect will happen next year, and as the year goes on the news will just keep getting worse and worse for Mr Brown and Labour. Local and EU elections which will [probably] be bad news for Labour, a second Irish referendum on The Lisbon Constitutional Treaty will rightly bring a poor spotlight on Gordon Brown and on the EU, increasing unemployment, declining £, lower returns on savings, increasing public debt. And of course from February Mr Brown will have to curtail use of his favourite line about our economic problems stemming from the US, or risk being the first European leader to fall out with President Obama.

So on that rationale, February starts to look good, get it in before all of the above sets in, and there are potential benefits as well. Mr Brown will be absolutely aching to be the first world leader to get to the White House, and if he can, he will be writing his own headlines in early February. An unknown will be the performance of the High Street over Christmas and the January sales, if based on turn-out at my local shopping centre last week, Mr Brown can be spinning about his VAT cut stimulating Christmas Sales. However, if based on my local shopping centre today, he will it will not be good news, and the Conservatives will have something tangible to add to their assault on The PMs economic record.

I suspect that because February could be circled as a possible time to go before things get worse, Peter Mandleson, and some in his circle will have engineered a few stories and leaks to see what the polls will say. Polls do tend to return different results when an Election is looming. Especially, when the poll is asking respondents what issues they most care about, these will be the key policy areas. It is hard to see anything topping the Economy as the key factor, especially for young families.

However despite it all. Despite reckless borrowing and debt levels to fund yet more Public Expenditure, despite the possibility that Labour might just be able to squeak it in February, I don't think Gordon Brown will go ahead with it. I honestly think that the Prime Minister has concerns about how he will be perceived when electioneering. He will have to go around middle England and ask those people that he has taxed and regulated the hardest to vote for their local Labour MP when the mere sight of Gordon Brown is likely to have the opposite effect. I suspect, whether he would admit it or not that Gordon Brown views Middle England as his natural enemy, his polar opposite and I do not think he will be able to bring himself to go pandering for their votes. Instead, I think he will take one more year acting the role of statesman, travelling the world and seeking our bigger summits. Come 2010 there will probably be a juicy EU job on the table for him, in return for his implementation of the Lisbon Constitutional Treaty in the UK.

OK - all that being said, assume I am wrong for a minute; because if the idea of an election is being gently floated, if they decide to go for it, they will HAVE TO go for it... and I want to play out some more thoughts.

There is one area that might bring results for Labour, and I think it is an area they have moved the chess pieces on in the last year. A little over a year ago, the Conservative Party had two things going for them, a strong shadow leadership team fronted by David Cameron and George Osborne and the fact that the Conservatives are not in anyway associated to Gordon Brown.

A long holiday and a return to cabinet for Peter Mandleson has seen a rejuvenated PM and a more organised, more crafted message. Peter Mandleson has transformed the Conservative approach. They were briefly in the ascendancy, now they do seem to be very cautious, perhaps too cautious to attack Labour policy. My opinion is that there is a real fear that if they come out and say anything at all, they leave themselves in danger of being "SPUN". Thus, in recent weeks, there seems to be only David Cameron making appearances on MSM news, with careful narration following on from other key Conservatives. I am not sure if centralising the Conservative message will work for them. It may work well for Labour, but that is a core trait for them; 'Solidarity' and 'Co-ordinated Communication' on defined issues. The Conservative strength has always been the ability to be the party that can accept more than one line on most matters, it is why the Conservatives tend to be the party that best protects free speech and individual liberties.

Peter Mandleson immediately targeted the Cameron/Osborne alliance, and he has had some success there. George Osborne's position as Shadow Chancellor is under scrutiny. On Conservative and right-wing blogs the debate seems to have moved past if George Osborne should be replaced, to who should replace him. A double whammy hit for Peter Mandleson because the person most floated by Conservative Bloggers (and the Labour Trolls) is Ken Clarke.

Now, I am not a fan of Ken Clarke. I have declared on this blog in its short existence that I am an undecided voter as far as the next election is concerned, but if Ken Clarke is the Shadow Chancellor I will be quick to say I will definitely not be voting Conservative. I do not share the view that Ken Clarke is a "Heavyweight", some of his speeches have been very monotone and uninspiring. Ken Clarke voted against the Tory Line on Lisbon, and appeared with Tony Blair in support of adopting the Euro, which was damaging to William Hagues Conservatives. I do not think I am alone with my assessment, and though I am only speaking to my opinions, I do think that there are a lot other Conservatives who feel the same. I think it is too late to replace George Osborne and not hand Labour another five years; but if he is replaced, George Osborne needs to go to CC HQ for and get started on General Election Strategy and Planning. And if he is replaced, Ken Clarke is not the answer. If George Osborne has to go then I can see no one other than John Redwood being able to take over and be able to show up the Governments economic record, and being widely accepted by likely voters. Despite Ken Clarke and John Redwood having respectively chequered history within the party, when John Redwoods name is floated, there is no instant riposte. This might suggest that his past leadership bids have not left a negative effect on voters. A quick scan of the right-wing blogosphere will also show much admiration for John Redwoods economic predictions on his blog.

Ken Clarke is not someone I would want to see as shadow chancellor - or as chancellor, and despite me being a little bewildered how some Conservatives seem to think he is the missing piece of the puzzle, he would be a good addition to the shadow cabinet. But he would need to have a remit that does not cross into Economic or European matters. If the aim of David Cameron is to have the strongest Shadow Cabinet possible, then Ken Clarke, John Redwood and David Davis should be included.

David Cameron should get someone in the shadow cabinet to shadow Peter Mandleson full-time. Labour would simply be unelectable if Peter Mandleson was to again leave the cabinet under the full storm of a media frenzy. David Davis could return and fill this role, and would probably enjoy and excel in such a role.

David Cameron has done a good job of getting Conservatives of varying opinions to function reasonably well as a shadow cabinet, and has largely brought an end to infighting between Conservatives through the media. It would be too easy for Labour to turn the Conservative Party against itself if Ken Clarke was Shadow Chancellor, in fact, I suspect Conservatives would not need Labour help there. But Ken Clarke is best when he has a challenge, he does garner support from a small section of the Conservative party that seemingly can reach.

If pushed for predictions as to what I have written I would say this.
1. No General Election in February.
2. George Osborne not replaced as Shadow Chancellor.
3. Gordon will be invited to the White House, but with other EU Leaders - spoiling his golden photo-op.
4. Opinion Polls will widen the Conservative Lead in January.

Should we try something a little different?

It has not been easy deciding what to post here. In the last two weeks there have been some big stories in the global press, and I have untypically been out of touch with the news (small matter of getting married abroad). However, I am back and determined to have a crack at getting some regular posts up and seeing if I can get some comments going on the board.

So, I will start with something at home and closer to heart, rather than commentary on some of the more pressing news of the last fortnight. I see today that a poll has been released stating that the Conservative Party are only one point ahead in the polls of the Labour Party. I should go on record as saying that I have not yet decided who I will vote for in the next General Election, as I shall be looking at the candidates running in my ward. However, I can’t help feeling that despite the fact that I am personally undecided, I definitely do not want to see a continuation of government run by the Labour Party. It is time for a change (past due actually), but I am not enamoured with the alternatives and as such I may take my vote and place it in the box for something different.

I do think the Conservative will probably win the next election, and I suspect that if there was an Election was called tomorrow there would a lot more than 1% between Labour and Conservatives.

What of the alternatives? I will be keen to blog on the merits and controversies of the Lib/Lab/Con bunch so perhaps for the purpose of conciseness in this case, let me move past these as “alternatives” and look at something else.

I will not vote BNP. I want to see laws made based on the merit of argument, and rationale of circumstance. Other motivations for laws and decision-making (such as hate towards others) is increasingly behind more and more political & legal decisions all around the world and very much so in Europe. My vote needs to go to a Party or Individual who is capable of fulfilling this criterion.

I think it is safe to assume that the SNP, Plaid Cymru and the DUP will not be standing in my particular ward in the South of England.

So party wise I am left with UKIP, and if there is a candidate possibly the English Democrats, and maybe the old Liberal Party (anyone who want to make the case… feel free). I won’t rule out voting for UKIP – but I feel they would be twice the party if they dropped the word “Independence” from their name and could get into some debates in the media that don’t centre around the EU.

And then there are Independents. Let me start by saying that Independents are fantastic. They may not get much press, even locally, but they are often the best stories (and candidates) when looking back on elections. I may be a big softy but I find it exceptionally noble that a neighbour would want to put their life on hold and put themselves to at least some financial loss so that they can stand up and say to those other individuals wanting to stand that if you want to run here you will have to speak about my issues too. I would love to see more independents in Parliament, so that we could move away from political consensus and in a direction of more debate. Some thoughts have been mulling around in my head for some time.

It must be difficult to be anything other than a little fish, or plucky activist. If you have financial backing, surely the perception then becomes that you are in someone else’s pocket. If you have no funding you either cannot get heard, or have to spend a lot of personal money to get heard. If you are rich it might be easy to be dismissed as having nothing better to do. Single issue independents need a pretty big issue to get heard.

Part of the reason why Lib/Lab/Con are generally unpopular, is because people feel they need to vote for them, for their individual vote to matter. The tri-party system, as it is now, allows for politicians to largely ignore their constituents. Lib/Lab/Con do not need to solicit donation door-to-door anymore, they have millionaire backers. It is a lot harder to ignore someone if you need their money to get elected.

I have something approaching 2 ideas. They are in fact unlikely to get entertained, and at first sound a little kooky. But we need Independents to be less Independent. There I said it. The saying sometimes goes that if “X” did not exist, someone would need to invent it. So here goes…

What if, in idea 1, there was instead of a “Party” system, as adopted by Lib/Lab/Con – there were a much looser association of elected individuals? If, instead of standing as an “Independent” you stood as, er, well I don’t have a name yet – let’s just say for now “New Independent” and instead of standing with a Lib/Lab/Con manifesto, you stood with a manifesto that you write yourself, and you can put into it absolutely anything that you like – as long as you let your proposed constituents see it, understand it and debate it. If you (and other “New Independents”) are then duly elected to Parliament agree that for all issues debated by parliament you will vote as a bloc; and decide how that bloc will vote by way of a majority vote within this new looser association. The exception being, except where the personal Manifesto contradicts (so you would still vote for the bloc decision, but can vote independently if the bloc vote contradicts your personal manifesto). There are of course a few problems with this idea, not least, having a system for tied votes, and enforcement of bloc votes without a party whip.

Or how about Idea 2, whereby once again a personal manifesto is published. But for all other decisions the decision is taken by a majority vote, following debate at a weekly surgery in the home constituency.

You may think me something of a fool for even contemplating such matters (let alone publishing them on the Internet) – but I am a glass half full kind of person. The preservation and enhancement of democracy and greater accountability to those elected to represent – so that they may better serve is my motive – if there is a problem in the system we should be prepared to ask if we need a new system. If encouragement towards independants as something of a counter-balance to the Party System is not a step in the right direction, then what is?

We need an active Parliament debating issues and hearing radical proposals not just party political back and forth.


Nb. I should just clarify; I am not personally intending to run for Parliament. I might like to later in life after I have had a career and raised a family – point being, this post is not intended as my own personal manifesto.