Sunday, May 10, 2009

Opinion Poll - Labour In Third Place, Brown Lacks Grass-Root Support

Looking over at the Times today I have seen the first opinion poll information for the EU elections has been published, the Times analysis is here.

The talking points are that Gordon Browns Labour Party are heading for third place in both the EU and local elections, dropping 9% to the Conservatives. Where The Lib Dems are holding firm on 27%, Labours drop will see them fall into third. UKIP still sit fourth, and the much written about BNP are seventh, still behind the Green Party, just. Jury Team seem not to have yet registered any support.

I would suggest that if the Governing Party is finishing third in local and EU elections it is a clear revocation of the flimsy mandate that currently exists. A Third place finish will see the UK in a position whereby the PM is unelected in a national ballot and by his own party; the governing party is legislating to the opposite as set out in its own election manifesto and a nation whose electorate have voted a clear indication of no confidence in the governing party.

Add in to this the current expenses revelations, which may all be out in the public domain by next week, but the story will run and run. There is a lot of MP's who's chief weakness in campaigning for re-election either has graced the pages of the Daily Telegraph this week, or will do so in the next few days. More and more cabinet members are looking very uncertain to be returned the longer Gordon Brown stays in charge.

David Cameron and Nick Clegg have in recent weeks shown that they are both much more in touch with the mood of the country than the PM. This weekend has seen the cabinet take a stubborn line on MPs expenses. This was unfortunately to be expected. However, if a different tact is adopted by David Cameron he would probably find even more favour with the country.

This is one of those odd issues where he could be more appealing to core Labour voters than a Labour PM. Working class Labour wards are some of the poorest in the country, they share the wider disdain in these expenses revelations. As I said before, this is a class issue, but not along the standard class lines; it is the political classes versus everybody else. The You Gov Poll showed that 24% of Labour voters think Gordon Brown is doing badly, only 7% think he is doing very well. I repeat, that is Labour voters, not overall. Just 7% of Labour voters think he is doing very well.

Like I also said recently, there is a feeling that it is not so much when Gordon goes now, but a question of who it will be that triggers the leadership bid. The Chief Whip seems to have lost all authority and that means we will see more and more disillusion and rebellion from with the Labour ranks. Charles Clarke seems to want to compete but has not got the support from the Parliamentary Party, but, others may have that support if they decided to challenge.

A few other points from the poll.

41% of Labour, 51% of Lib Dem and 70% of Conservative voters would back a 20% cut in public spending similar to the one announced in the 1990's in Canada.

There seems to be very little support from any party-aligned voters to the governments Royal Mail proposals and much support for the right to allowing Gurkha's settle in the UK when they have served in the protection of the UK.

1 comment:

Blue Eyes said...

I will be interested to see how the local election results are "spun". Remember that Labour have been doing very badly indeed in local elections for some time now so for them to lose many seats now will leave them with virtually none!