Shuffling The Deck

I linked earlier to David Blackburns piece, regarding David Camerons mini reshuffle before the election heats up.  I read it last night and was tempted to pass comment, decided against and have had another change of mind now.

David starts by claiming that James Fortsyth had three weeks earlier laid blame for the Tory downturn at the door of Osborne, Hilton, Coulson and Bridges for the incoherent and dismal message.  I had actually published two days earlier then James that the blame lies with David Cameron, and that he needed to appoint a dedicated General Election Coordinator to take charge and control the messaging.  That is after all what leaders do; they lead and establish a chain of command and have people observe it.  Having four or five people working somewhat independently was always a recipe for disaster.

So, it would seem that common sense has prevailed, and that George Osborne is taking on that exact role.  I am about as much a fan of Osborne as I am Cameron but it is the right decision and should help focus some mind and steady the ship.  I am genuinely looking forward to hearing what the Tories have to offer, and I hope this will mean they can get in control of the agenda now.

Unfortunately this also means that, quelle surprise, Cameron's other buddy Ken Clarke, who is nobodies favourite Tory will now "step up" and become the face of the Conservatives Economic Policy.  I would think that Ken Clarke will put in a better show than George Osborne who I don't think comes across too well on TV.  However, Ken Clarke is not the big hitter that he was billed to be.  He has completely failed in every way in his current remit which was to neutralise Mandelson and give him a bloody nose.  As Mandelson is delighted to remind people, in private he and Ken Clarke agree on just about everything to do with policy.  So, from a meritorious point of view, an unwarranted promotion for Ken. 

What is more worrying to me though is that I suspect Cameron is considering making the position more permanent, and installing Ken Clarke as Chancellor should he win the election. This would be, for me a great disappointment as Ken Clarke has betrayed the Conservative Party in the past over issues of the EU and he will surely do so again.  He is a regular at the Bilderberg meetings and is certainly one who see's the anti-democratic international bodies as the way forward for global governance.  Clarke as Chancellor would be a great recruiting poster for UKIP.

It also therefore begs the question of who exactly is supposed to be countering Peter Mandelson now in the run up to the election?  If the lesson has truly been learnt then tackling the economic message is in itself too much of a job on it's own, there is no way Ken Clarke can shadow the Chancellor and Peter Mandelson at the same time.  Mandelson will be the king of the campaign and we all know he is a master of electioneering, he simply can not go unchallenged.

I hope Cameron has actually thought of this, because Labour has a number of other big hitters in the background ready to step forward and electrify their core base.  Next to Mandelson will be John Prescott, Alastair Campbell, John Reid and the granddaddy of modern elections, Tony Blair.  These guys have largely kept out of sight in the last year or so from mainstream TV news and will be chomping at the bit to get on the telly and talk up "an historic labour fourth term" and they will all do what they need to to make Gordon look human.  They will sell Gordons lies a million times better than he can.  Outside of Osborne and Clarke only William Hague and Boris Johnson are fairly well known on a wide scale for the Conservatives and they need to rectify this quickly.  Boris will probably not feature too much until nearer Election Day.

My recommendation to David Cameron is to bring forward John Redwood to counter Mandelson who has torn Labour's record to shreds on his blog.  That would provide a counter-balance to swivel-eyed-right-wing-loonies like me who will bash him for the Clarke elevation.  I would ask Liam Fox to be on telly as much as possible and I would advise Cameron to make good with David Davis.  Chris Grayling, Michael Gove and Dominic Grieve should be told to raise their own profiles and join in the fight a bit more also.

Having a few Conservatives of a more traditional mould in front of the cameras will do them the world of good.  I guarantee that the Conservatives will not win this election unless there are many faces on TV proving that as a party they are willing to fight for the right to govern. 

Tory Deal With EU

According to Bruno the Conservatives have sent Ken Clarke to Brussels to meet with Jose Manuel Barroso to signal that a Conservative government is one which is not going to cause any trouble to the EU's grand plans.  Bruno, who is based in Brussels, says that:

The two-day visit to Brussels, which begins on Tuesday, by the most pro-EU member of David Cameron's cabinet-in-waiting is seen by European officials as a signal that a new Conservative administration will work with the EU executive rather battling against it.

Ken Clarke will also meet with Michel Barnier who is the French Commissioner for the Internal Market and I would imagine they will discuss the disembowlling of the City of London and gradual handover of power of our markets to the EU Commission.

Such a move should not come as a surprise to anybody but in my opinion is going to be held up as yet another stick with which to beat long-suffering EU Sceptic Conservatives who will again be taking a long hard look at UKIP.

Let me again give reference to the Albion Alliance, who are seeking to get candidates from across all parties to pledge to a referendum on EU Membership before the General Election.  There are a number of candidates who have indicated that they fear being deselected if they pledge before the General Election, and as such the Albion Alliance has introduced a secret pledge function so that candidates can pledge now without fear of the party whip.  Their support will be announced once the General Election has been called, when deselection is no longer an option.  We must maintain and in fact increase the pressure on our MPs and perspective MPs and we have to do it this side of the General Election.  Conservative Candidates can of course pledge, but I suspect they may need a decent indication of local support for doing so.

If you are someone who wants to cast an EU Sceptic vote, but you are not sure if your candidates rhetoric is solid, or if it is all more guff, then what is the harm in spending a couple of minutes to email them?  Just because a candidate has already been emailed, does not mean that with the benefit of repeated requests will be lost on them.

I wouldn't mind wagering that Ken Clarke's trip will grate on those Conservatives who hold the hope that the party will shift to a more EU Sceptic position when in office.

Ken Clarkes Take On Tory EU Policy

James Kirkup describes Ken Clarke as "a walking gift to journalism if there ever was one" and then quotes Ken Clarke from the Commons Press Gallery on David Cameron's new EU policy.

Mr Clarke’s words:

“We’re going to have a go at repatriating, going back to the old opt-out on the social chapter. People want to be reassured on criminal justice.

“I think it’s largely reassurance, myself.

“But I do think we will not be alone. We will have allies.

“So long as you don’t over-dramatise it, done properly, there’s a serious negotiation to be had.

“I look forward to getting the debate back to a bit of calmness and common sense on both sides of the argument.”

I wrote down my thoughts after hearing Cameron's speech last week, I have not heard or read anything to make me change my mind. Many Conservatives reaction was supportive of David Cameron, but laced with a not so subtle bitterness which betrayed what was in their hearts, that they were again gambling on the Conservatives coming through for them later on; lying back and thinking of England so to speak.

There is talk of a civil war brewing; this may be the case but I suspect this may take some time to happen. The Conservatives can handle lively debate under the roof of their broad church, even if it is no longer encouraged actively. But the real dilemma is not between the factions but in the hearts and minds of potential and loyal Conservative voters. To many, the question is different. What is the lesser of two evils... Five more years of Labour or acceptance of the Lisbon Treaty and accepting Britain as a province in the new EUslavia? Neither play well in the minds of many.

The return of Ken Clarke the front benches prompted much comment at the time. I reluctantly tried to find some positives in the decision myself. I made the point that Clarke needed to land a scalp and live up to the image of the Big Beast. However, what has he achieved since? Lord Mandy loves having Ken Clarke as a Shadow, he has failed to land any big blows and Mandy even joked at the Labour Conference that Ken Clarke privately agrees with all Mandy has said and is doing. What else could be expected from two paid up EU loving foot soldiers?

It's not like Ken Clarke is doing his homework and trying to hold Labour to account. In a recent exchange in the Commons Clarke proclaimed that British businesses were struggling under the burden of over regulation. His designated chaperone retorted with a simple request for Clarke to name three regulations that he would dismantle... Clarke had no answer. Not one. Perhaps Ken Clarke could find some time to have a read of this or even this - He is going through the motions and not trying very hard. It will be a seamless transition when he takes over from Peter Mandelson.

As I was listening to David Cameron last week on his new EU policy, it did not sound like a speech that had been written by Ken Clarke; it sounded like a speech written for Ken Clarke. Ken Clarke is not someone I would pick out as a good representative what Conservative voters want, or how they think.

The new EU policy has only one unarguable plus point so far as I can see...

David Cameron cannot be accused any time soon of being a popularist when writing up policy.

All of this got me thinking that maybe Clarke was not brought back because he is a big beast, but maybe he just knows where the bodies are buried and convinced Cameron to let him back in. After a not very convincing start to his role, he does not appear to be under any pressure to claim any scalps. Just maybe Clarke has the dirt on Cameron already.

After removing the Conservatives from the EPP in the EU Parliament, one could be forgiven for having expected a more robust line when Lisbon was finally ratified from Cameron; he had certianly convinced the likes on Dan Hannan and William Hague convinced that there were some serious intentions there. Yet instead of looking to the Party and to what they want to see, Cameron looked to Clarke and the supporters of the EU and wrote up another chapter in the Conservative EU play book. Was this a reversal or an attempt at Blairesque triangulation?

Agree with me or not; agree with Cameron or don't. But his EU policy is going to define Cameron and the Conservative Party for a generation and the more it is discussed, and the closer we get to Cameron as PM the greater that split will be felt by those who have to chose which side of the line they want to be on.

Saturday Rant

I shall be watching the Conservative conference around work this week with interest. It is naturally going to be watched by with broad interest because they are looking likely to be the party of government from next year.

Today’s result from Ireland on the referendum is looking to be a convincing YES vote which means it is looking very likely now that The EU Constitution will come into force in the coming months and that President Blair and an EU Foreign Commissioner will be appointed to rule us. God help us all.

So, in a “well duh” statement observers of this week’s conservative conference are going to be looking for an indication of what the Conservatives are going to do now that a pre-ratification referendum for the UK after a Cameron election is almost impossible.

That’s why I will be watching, and that is what I will be looking for. I suspect this is true of many others. Looking to a hint in the papers before the conference gets going full swing; it is perhaps a deliberate and placed message from none other than Ken Clarke that I stumble upon in the Telegraph.

Ken Clarke is a big thinker in conservative economics, but he is not the big beast he is presented to be, well at least in my opinion. He to my recollection has not cornered Mandelson since his return to the shadow front bench in January, and has no scalps to his name. The Big Beast has been tamed. On TV it seemed to me he supports much of what he is there to oppose. Mandelson quipped at the Labour conference that he had tried to call Ken Clarke but his phone was off and wondered if David Cameron had ordered it off having got wind of how often Ken and Mandy “agree privately on so much”.

Infuriatingly in his Telegraph interview he speaks well on the Economy. Take this for example:

"I've been through a fair number of spending rounds. The present deficit is a far more serious crisis than anything I ever faced." He points out that Labour's promise to halve the deficit in four years will only bring it down to the level it was at when Denis Healey had to go cap in hand to the International Monetary Fund in 1976.


"We have to go faster than that. We really must start cutting the deficit faster than they are doing because that isn't an adequate aim," he says. He would prefer to cut spending "resolutely" rather than raise taxes. He praises as "wise" the leadership's decision not to rule out tax increases. "Some of my colleagues promised it in 1992 and I spent most of my time raising taxes and cutting spending. It was an embarrassment. Most Conservatives would prefer naturally not to raise tax rates." He repeats the hope that the Tories will be able to reverse the planned increase in National Insurance that will hit all incomes.

But what about it Ken, what about the EU? Where’s the not so hidden message before the conference from a leading Conservative. Here it is.

Mr Clarke urges his critics to stay quiet this weekend. He does not want a return to “the most absurd civil war” of the 1990s when the party “destroyed” itself over Europe. It would be a “disaster”. Under Mr Cameron the party is not interested in “punch-ups”.

But some are. He must know that. “I hope you’re wrong. We have got policy, I accepted it was settled and I wasn’t going to try to change it. We’re not going to move on until and unless the treaty is ratified and enforced.”

ARRRRGGGGGHHHHH!!

It is the Ken Clarke paradox, a brilliant mind on economics, completely blind to the dangers and excesses of the EU. It is not an accident he is interviewed for the papers the day the Lisbon votes are counted in Ireland.

I did not of course need to go looking for a hint in the papers, like many others when I checked my emails today I got an email from David Cameron – this is his message.

This weekend we will hear the results of the referendum in Ireland on the re-named EU Constitution.


I want to make one thing clear: there will be no change in our policy on Europe and no new announcements at the Conference. There will be no change in Conservative policy as long as the Lisbon Treaty is still not in force. The Treaty has still not been ratified by the Czechs and the Poles. The Czech Prime Minister has said that the constitutional challenge before the Czech Constitutional Court could take 3-6 months to resolve.


I have said repeatedly that I want us to have a referendum. If the Treaty is not ratified in all Member States and not in force when the election is held, and if we are elected, then we will hold a referendum on it, we will name the date of the referendum in the election campaign, we will lead the campaign for a 'No' vote.

If the Treaty is ratified and in force in all Member States, we have repeatedly said we would not let matters rest there. But we have one policy at a time, and we will set out how we would proceed in those circumstances if, and only if, they happen.

Again I am not a party member, and I will not be at the Conference. Does this really cut it for EU skeptics in the Conservative party?

You tell me.

In a post Lisbon EU the UK Government will be even more limited in its function and powers and will have to subvert to the wishes of President Tony Blair. Can you see Cameron flying in for a White House summit without Tony? How about alongside, knowing that Cameron cannot over rule Blair? This is the Tip of the Iceberg as to the limitations of UK Government.

So, it will be an interesting week, I think. In my gut I think the EU Skeptic vote is about to harden without a clearer line of what David Cameron will do. My EU Skeptic Conservative friends have been happy to go along with supporting an “if it is not ratified, we will have a referendum” line. But, it will be ratified, so what is the plan now? When they take this line there is a look in their eye that is the same for most that have uttered it, they want this to be true and enough of a commitment not to send the Conservatives into a dogfight.

Me, I am a swivel-eyed EUphobic-loon who would, if I lead of a national party would campaign for an “in or out” referendum, and if the vote was in I would do all I could to protect and enhance Britains prospects. At least people will have voted on it! And if the vote was out I would have us out in a heartbeat, and would be looking to keep strong trading ties to the EU but also looking to trade deals and to reestablish stronger cultural ties with the Commonwealth Countries and with the US and Asia. I would be thinking of Britain’s place in the World, not just in Europe – Like Prime Minister used to do.

I think the debate needs to move on now from what will be done if it is not ratified. Maybe not this week, but soon. In a General Election campaign with Lisbon ratified and on current pledges, I see no reason to look to the Tories, I think I would have to look to UKIP.

Update: Thanks Boris.

Ken Clarke Appointed To Shadow Cabinet

As of Monday 19th January 2008 Ken Clarke will be back in the Conservative Shadow Cabinet. Iain Dale has the scoop here.




The next 10 days will be very interesting. There is going to be something of a backlash amongst Conservative voters, and David Cameron will come under fire for this decision. Ken Clarke has seven, maybe ten days to land a big body blow on Peter Mandelson and/or the Labour Party. If he does this, David Cameron's decision will be vindicated.* If not, then the recent poll results which have been showing an overall Conservative Majority will likely slip back, as the anti-Ken voices from within the Conservative Party get louder. Mandelson and Brown will be prepared for his return, suspect they have some counter punches lined up already.




This is not, in my opinion a clause 4 moment for David Cameron. This is not the Conservative setting a new direction, or casting of the burden of unpopular ideology. This is the moment however that the Conservative Party was honest with itself and who they are and what they stand for. Most have suspected since David Cameron accession that he is Pro-EU at heart and wants to lead Britain from inside the EU. I would rather he were more open about this so that it can be debated, rather than a closed issue which will, in the long run, cause greater frustrations and factions within the Conservative Party.




If I was still a likely Conservative voter, and held my previous concerns, this announcement would definitely send me over the edge…. However, paradoxically, now looking in without a sense of voting allegiance it could be a good move for the Conservatives. The only thing, politically speaking, that I want more than to withdraw from the EU is the complete defeat of the current Labour Government. If Ken Clarke's return ensures that The Conservatives move from narrow election majority, to comfortable majority then it may help put more Conservative MPs in Parliament and may subsequently ensure that I get what I want, an open, national debate on continued EU membership.




Of course, there is the chance also that Labour will on Tuesday announce that they are taking the UK into the Euro, then the Conservative party might possible implode into full scale civil war... and my head would explode from the excess rage surging through my brain.


*Provided that Ken Clarke does not then go off and rattle the Tories by a) Standing on a platform with Gordon Brown & Peter Mandelson to promote the Euro or the Lisbon Treaty. B) declares publicly that ‘smoking does not cause cancer’ or C) launches another ill-fated leadership bid. (If I have missed any, please add to the comments…)

What Is The Hurry?

There have been a few opinions in the blogosphere in the last week or so urging David Cameron to have his re-shuffle and be done with it. Where as I understand points being made and that it seems that Cameron is dithering a bit.

I say, why hurry?


There has been some good opinions and debate heard because of this speculation. The MSM does not deem much going on in Westminster to be sexy enough to write about, so we are getting re-shuffle stories.


When the talk moves to Osborne and the Shadow Chancellors job the points made are that Osborne is a good operative, but perhaps not best suited to this particular position. We See instead that the real big beast here is John Redwood, who is doing such a good job in a proxy-shadow chancellor role, especially through his Blog and newspaper work that David Cameron will probably feel safe enough to keep Osborne by his side as Shadow Chancellor.... until elected at least. The Tories are the party with a selection of people who can speak well on the economy. Point being, David Cameron could be viewed as making The Economy his top priority, so much so that he has placed his most trusted and valued advisor in the role to help shape that vision.


Discussion over William Hague has reminded Conservatives that they do have candidates who can play well in the North of England, and that there are people in David Cameron's circle that are not of the Bullingdon Club. Hague is is allowed to speak on EU Sceptic issues (If perhaps not as often as some would like to hear.)

Talk of Alan Duncan's position has reminded Conservatives of a few matters. Firstly he serves as an example of inclusion within the party. Secondly that inclusion is not trumpeted, and points are not attempted to be made off of Mr Duncan's personal business. His position was secured of professional merit, not to pad out the party manifesto or meet a quota. Thirdly, Mandleson's return, in the Lords requires someone to shadow him exclusively. And fourthly, how quick public opinion, especially at the grass roots of the Conservative Party will turn if personal attacks are conducted via the media.

Ken Clarke's heralded return reminds the Conservatives where they were in the 1990's and that if they do attain power they strive to rebut the arrogance that comes from holding office. I shudder at the notion that Ken Clarke could one day be making key decisions on the EU and The Euro - however, he is a conservative and they will get attacked on Europe forever more until the Conservative Party can find a way to talk about it without imploding. Having Ken at the table can remind the top team of the what they can and can not do because of the EU, and how they can avoid stoking the EU debate in the wrong direction. [Though i acknowledge, this is pretty much on Kens terms and for as long as he decides he wants to do that].

I do not share the opinion that Ken Clarke is "The Big Beast", I do not find him a convincing communicator, and I feel he serves as a reminder of a bitter past. Better then that he can talk to those issue directly. He also can bring in support that no other Tory can, something that might tip the balance between a hung parliament and a Conservative Government. As long as Ken Clarke is on board, and David Cameron is honest about the extent Ken Clarke can reach in terms of Ministerial position it may work.


The point to all this is that some of these issues in the recent past would have been very negative talking points in the MSM and the debate would possibly have made the Conservatives look bad to floating voters (EU, Economy, Party Inclusion, Ministers in the Lords etc...). That has not happened. David Cameron has stalled on the proposed re-shuffle, but he isn't having his hand forced on decisions, there is no real question of indecisiveness, only the fear of being perceived as such. Imagine how this would all be playing out in the media if it was Gordon Brown stalling over a re-shuffle.


It also shows that Conservatives do not know how to spin. The official line should be that David Cameron is wading through an extensive list of impressive CV's to determine, in his estimation the very best shadow cabinet available and one in which the people of the UK deserve. This is going to take a little time. The current shadow cabinet is functioning so well that the leader feels no need to make decisions in haste. There, simple really.


I am myself still an undecided voter, but the I just feel it was worth mentioning that the Conservatives are appearing more and more as an electable, desirable party.

Election Thoughts (1)

Lots of twists and turns this week, and there have been nudges and winks indicating that there will be, or won't be, or will be or won't be......... a General Election in February.

Twists and turns isn't the start of it, on two occasions this week I have sat down and tried to put some thoughts onto the blog about where this all might be leading, but news kept breaking taking the story in a different direction.

I do not think there will be an election in February, I of course can not be certain, but I wouldn't completely rule out an election in 2009. By early 2010, general consensus is (for what ever that is worth) that the economy will be bottoming out and the pain of the credit crunch will hitting families hard. Additionally, having run down the clock on a full five year term, Labour know the public psyche recall Brown "bottling it" in 2008.

Having said that, February 2009 could be, just maybe, the best possible time to have an election, if you are a Labour MP, Minister or of course Prime Minister. Look ahead, in your own mind to what we know, or strongly suspect will happen next year, and as the year goes on the news will just keep getting worse and worse for Mr Brown and Labour. Local and EU elections which will [probably] be bad news for Labour, a second Irish referendum on The Lisbon Constitutional Treaty will rightly bring a poor spotlight on Gordon Brown and on the EU, increasing unemployment, declining £, lower returns on savings, increasing public debt. And of course from February Mr Brown will have to curtail use of his favourite line about our economic problems stemming from the US, or risk being the first European leader to fall out with President Obama.

So on that rationale, February starts to look good, get it in before all of the above sets in, and there are potential benefits as well. Mr Brown will be absolutely aching to be the first world leader to get to the White House, and if he can, he will be writing his own headlines in early February. An unknown will be the performance of the High Street over Christmas and the January sales, if based on turn-out at my local shopping centre last week, Mr Brown can be spinning about his VAT cut stimulating Christmas Sales. However, if based on my local shopping centre today, he will it will not be good news, and the Conservatives will have something tangible to add to their assault on The PMs economic record.

I suspect that because February could be circled as a possible time to go before things get worse, Peter Mandleson, and some in his circle will have engineered a few stories and leaks to see what the polls will say. Polls do tend to return different results when an Election is looming. Especially, when the poll is asking respondents what issues they most care about, these will be the key policy areas. It is hard to see anything topping the Economy as the key factor, especially for young families.

However despite it all. Despite reckless borrowing and debt levels to fund yet more Public Expenditure, despite the possibility that Labour might just be able to squeak it in February, I don't think Gordon Brown will go ahead with it. I honestly think that the Prime Minister has concerns about how he will be perceived when electioneering. He will have to go around middle England and ask those people that he has taxed and regulated the hardest to vote for their local Labour MP when the mere sight of Gordon Brown is likely to have the opposite effect. I suspect, whether he would admit it or not that Gordon Brown views Middle England as his natural enemy, his polar opposite and I do not think he will be able to bring himself to go pandering for their votes. Instead, I think he will take one more year acting the role of statesman, travelling the world and seeking our bigger summits. Come 2010 there will probably be a juicy EU job on the table for him, in return for his implementation of the Lisbon Constitutional Treaty in the UK.

OK - all that being said, assume I am wrong for a minute; because if the idea of an election is being gently floated, if they decide to go for it, they will HAVE TO go for it... and I want to play out some more thoughts.

There is one area that might bring results for Labour, and I think it is an area they have moved the chess pieces on in the last year. A little over a year ago, the Conservative Party had two things going for them, a strong shadow leadership team fronted by David Cameron and George Osborne and the fact that the Conservatives are not in anyway associated to Gordon Brown.

A long holiday and a return to cabinet for Peter Mandleson has seen a rejuvenated PM and a more organised, more crafted message. Peter Mandleson has transformed the Conservative approach. They were briefly in the ascendancy, now they do seem to be very cautious, perhaps too cautious to attack Labour policy. My opinion is that there is a real fear that if they come out and say anything at all, they leave themselves in danger of being "SPUN". Thus, in recent weeks, there seems to be only David Cameron making appearances on MSM news, with careful narration following on from other key Conservatives. I am not sure if centralising the Conservative message will work for them. It may work well for Labour, but that is a core trait for them; 'Solidarity' and 'Co-ordinated Communication' on defined issues. The Conservative strength has always been the ability to be the party that can accept more than one line on most matters, it is why the Conservatives tend to be the party that best protects free speech and individual liberties.

Peter Mandleson immediately targeted the Cameron/Osborne alliance, and he has had some success there. George Osborne's position as Shadow Chancellor is under scrutiny. On Conservative and right-wing blogs the debate seems to have moved past if George Osborne should be replaced, to who should replace him. A double whammy hit for Peter Mandleson because the person most floated by Conservative Bloggers (and the Labour Trolls) is Ken Clarke.

Now, I am not a fan of Ken Clarke. I have declared on this blog in its short existence that I am an undecided voter as far as the next election is concerned, but if Ken Clarke is the Shadow Chancellor I will be quick to say I will definitely not be voting Conservative. I do not share the view that Ken Clarke is a "Heavyweight", some of his speeches have been very monotone and uninspiring. Ken Clarke voted against the Tory Line on Lisbon, and appeared with Tony Blair in support of adopting the Euro, which was damaging to William Hagues Conservatives. I do not think I am alone with my assessment, and though I am only speaking to my opinions, I do think that there are a lot other Conservatives who feel the same. I think it is too late to replace George Osborne and not hand Labour another five years; but if he is replaced, George Osborne needs to go to CC HQ for and get started on General Election Strategy and Planning. And if he is replaced, Ken Clarke is not the answer. If George Osborne has to go then I can see no one other than John Redwood being able to take over and be able to show up the Governments economic record, and being widely accepted by likely voters. Despite Ken Clarke and John Redwood having respectively chequered history within the party, when John Redwoods name is floated, there is no instant riposte. This might suggest that his past leadership bids have not left a negative effect on voters. A quick scan of the right-wing blogosphere will also show much admiration for John Redwoods economic predictions on his blog.

Ken Clarke is not someone I would want to see as shadow chancellor - or as chancellor, and despite me being a little bewildered how some Conservatives seem to think he is the missing piece of the puzzle, he would be a good addition to the shadow cabinet. But he would need to have a remit that does not cross into Economic or European matters. If the aim of David Cameron is to have the strongest Shadow Cabinet possible, then Ken Clarke, John Redwood and David Davis should be included.

David Cameron should get someone in the shadow cabinet to shadow Peter Mandleson full-time. Labour would simply be unelectable if Peter Mandleson was to again leave the cabinet under the full storm of a media frenzy. David Davis could return and fill this role, and would probably enjoy and excel in such a role.

David Cameron has done a good job of getting Conservatives of varying opinions to function reasonably well as a shadow cabinet, and has largely brought an end to infighting between Conservatives through the media. It would be too easy for Labour to turn the Conservative Party against itself if Ken Clarke was Shadow Chancellor, in fact, I suspect Conservatives would not need Labour help there. But Ken Clarke is best when he has a challenge, he does garner support from a small section of the Conservative party that seemingly can reach.

If pushed for predictions as to what I have written I would say this.
1. No General Election in February.
2. George Osborne not replaced as Shadow Chancellor.
3. Gordon will be invited to the White House, but with other EU Leaders - spoiling his golden photo-op.
4. Opinion Polls will widen the Conservative Lead in January.