DNR

It’s been a while and it’s a little tough to know where to start, but I shall dive right in.

Once upon a time Blair glibly remarked that he felt the hand of history on his shoulder whilst ironing out a settlement in Northern Ireland. It’s funny because I have been feeling that hand too lately, but only after it has been riffling through my pockets and stealing my cash. That same hand is currently writing a number of cheques from all of us to the State that ensure the masses will all be very much poorer for a good number of years.

The proportion of state spending going on servicing debt is going to keep going up year on year. We already now spend more on debt payments each year than we do on the NHS, and that is going to keep going up and up. The predictable post-Labour legacy of out of control debt coupled with a broken economy is stinging us at the exact time the Euro-Currency is about to fall down. This perfect storm has been fuelled and funded by reckless borrowing which provided a short term political smoke-screen. Now that smoke is clearing we can all see the extent of the problems and share regret that efforts to rein in spending and halt the bloating of the state had not been more successful.

But you all know this already.

There is however a worrying problem that we seem to have fallen into a near hypnotic trance. We are all sat staring at the Merkozy Bunch waiting for their latest joint conference to see what announcement can falsely prop the markets up for a few more days.

This is surely wrong.

The Euro is on its deathbed. It is a failed currency that has quite probably indebted more people for more money than any other political experiment in history. Yet, for some reason the received wisdom of the Politicians, the economists, the hack-observers and the Federalists is to call for treatment of the disease rather than the patient.

There are no solutions to the “Euro-problem” because the EU is unable to address the absolutely base problems at the core of the currency; that there is no European Demos from which to pool a central tax fund for a central bank to govern the Euro. More to the point, as stated from before the outset, no currency can have 17 different Chancellor-of-the-exchequers.

The Euro needs to be killed off and fast.

It needs to be put down if necessary.

Once the leviathan ailment is gone Europeans need to look at how we got into this boat in the first place. The structures of democracy have been twisted and used against this continent for the benefit of elite for too long. It has all been done in our name and it has all been done with a smile. Without a real change we will be here all over again when the next grand experiment fails.

Whatever Merkozy-Cameron plan evolves over the next week you can be sure of just one thing – that it will do nothing more than make the Euro more expensive financially and more dangerous politically for when it does eventually fail. I repeat, it needs to be killed off now.

Which brings me back to the UK.

I don’t think anybody who has spent much time keeping an eye on the EU problem ever really thought that Cameron would ever offer a referendum on any Treaty. That referendum lock was assumed be made from the same “cast-iron” that the previous referendum pledge was made of.

If (or more likely when) The Coalition needs to it will probably get the new treaty through the Commons and the Tories will lose but a few token rebels. Cameron’s other-half Osborne is after-all a Bilderberger and his trump card William “Eurosceptic” Hague has fully converted to the cause.

But a referendum is possible if enough people are prepared to stand up for one, but more importantly it is WINNABLE. People are waking up in real numbers to how the EU influences their lives. Those who say voting changes nothing are starting to see that is largely because of the Political Class which has organised so well that they have moved control out of a deformed and debased parliament and moved it to the anti-democratic Brussels Arm. People are starting to see with the benefit of a Coalition Government that it is the class as much as the Party.

The Federalists have never been more scared than they are now, and they have absolutely no answers, and they can lie no more about the certainty of success in their credo. They can’t do what they really want to do just yet; but they have managed to install puppet governments in Greece and Italy – It will not end there. If we could force that referendum on the wider question of UK membership the federalists argument would disintegrate, because on a weekly basis the Euro is failing more and more people. In fact, if we had a Prime Minister who had the guts to stand up for the wishes of the electorate and state we’re off out we would probably be ejected rather than have a UK referendum threaten any additional uncertainties whilst they patch up what remains of their beloved currency.

We need the courage to know we can win this and see it off for good. We have right on our side, which is not always enough, but coupled with the conviction we can turn the tables and bring about the massive changes that are needed.  We may not control the media agenda or the political agenda but we control this argument because we speak the truth, and always have. 

All the lies and the liars are now exposed.

It has been the sceptical voices from across the political spectrum that have been correct on the EU and the Euro all along. The leaders of tomorrow are the few that have been on the correct side of this issue all along. The Federalists of today and yesteryear may disappear without charge for their grossly destructive actions, they definitely will if we let them. Sometimes history shows a movement or an idea can be so massively wrong-headed we look back and it is nearly comical. I want to see all those who have been right so far carry on the good fight by getting themselves in positions of power. We need to rid ourselves of anyone and everyone who is in a position of public office who has taken any steps to ensnare us in the EU pit.

Greece A Takes Step On Road To EURO Exit

Tapestry has the story.


The EURO won't collapse solely because Greece exits, but the floodgates for a number of debates will open if they do come out.  Hopefully the Greeks and other nations will now question if there really is value to be had in this slow motion push for a Federal Europe or if we should all take back control to a national level where voters can have a direct say in the decisions that need to be made.

Old Mother Hubbard

If I were to owe you £100,000 you may on the surface simply be inclined to say it is my responsibility to repay as per our agreement. If however I was to owe you £100,000 and you knew that the extent of my assets could no longer stretch any further than £20,000 then you were not be proven a bit foolish for having lent that money to me, but you would have a very good reason to take an active interest in my finances, and maybe even want a say over them.

Greece is in big trouble, but so too are nations like the UK, France & Germany which have purchased bonds to help prop up the profligate Greeks. A recent €20bn issue needed a record high interest rate to attract interest, and it is now thought that another €20bn is needed to prevent a default in April/May with a total €53bn requirement this year for the Greeks to just to stand still.

Greece's GDP is 75% reliant on services, and with less than 4% is dedicated to growing and less than 21% to producing and selling exports, the Greeks are not exactly bursting with goods to sell abroad which will bring in cash. With the European financial services sector in meltdown, and the people of Europe groaning under their own public sector tax burdens, it is looking very unlikely that Greece will be able to shoulder their debt burden past 2010.

Now, I need to re-iterate as I do whenever I wander into the economic territories that I am no economist, but once again I am wondering into this arena and doing so a little bemused. We have a situation, much like with the banks whereby the debt is exceeding the potential assets available (for recovery), and instead of insisting on corective behaviour, we are again sitting still and waiting for a collapse, at which point we will all be dragged around the table and told that we have to prop things up until profitability returns, and that we will be servicing our own debt, and increasing our own liability in the meantime. It is a recipe for disaster.

In the last two decades, the worlds economics has in my humble opinion completely taken leave of its senses. Is this planet really so chocked full of idiots that they think we can run the world economy, both public and private sectors completely in defecit? Greece is in trouble because it traded it's sovereignty for the EURO, and now it cannot take the devaluing measure needed to ease it's burdens. I am sure that when the EURO was adopted they felt that there was no way the Germans and the French would let their economy flounder, I think this assumption has just been tested and the results are not encouraging.

When EU leaders met last week, like with Old Mother Hubbard they declared the cupboard to be bare. The big economies of Europe have inflated their public sectors and grown an unproductive intra-national nightmare in the EU and they have done it by borrowing and by taxing the productivity out of the markets.  Take a moments pause and you can hear the pips, squeaking.  Two to Three years ago the warning signs were there, and these governments could have made cuts to help reduce these deficits, but they failed to do so. Instead, we have taken up the last of pour lines of credit, and are at breaking point. We owe more than we can pay... so does everyone else.... and the debt bubble is about to burst.

EU Leaders can't help Greece, because we are all in the same boat, we have debts coming out of our ears.  Greece is just a little more exposed and thus ahead of the curve. The QE Programme has kept us afloat but we will feel the sore pinch of that in the next decade. Britain was able to exercise this option because it is not in the EURO, but it is not an exercise that can be repeated.  There is only one thing left to do, and it is what should have been done two years ago... The borrowing has got to stop, and the cuts need to begin. We in the UK will pay more on debt interest this year than we will on our armed forces and about half of what we spend on the NHS. It has got to stop.


Old Mother Hubbard
Went to the cupboard
To get her poor doggie a bone,
When she got there
The cupboard was bare
So the poor little doggie had none.

Latest Nigel Farage Video

I will hat tip Captain Ranty, who also offers the interesting suggestion that we should clone Nigel Farage.

I can see the placards now.

Part Of The Reason Why I am So Broke...

I have just stolen this graph from Mark Bathgate from Coffee House, and added the two points of reference.

Fig. 1 - Approx date my wife and I decided that we would get married in a very beautiful spot in Ireland.

Fig 2 - Actual date of wedding and of when most of the payments in Euro's was made.

The devaluation of Sterling hit us hard and very sharply as the favourable x-rate was slashed.

This is not the full story of why I am broke, to disclose it would result in a prompt ending of said marriage, and I am actually rather in love still; so I won't risk it.  (Plus rising cost of living and taxation along with pay reductions have not helped at all.) The moral of the post, like the disclaimers say, rates may go up as well as down - it is a risk.

Who Will Pay For The EU?

Eastern European countries gave a bleak assessment of their economic prospects yesterday with Hungary talking of 5m unemployed turning up in Western EU Countries looking for work and benefits. Though the remark was aimed at Germany, it is worth remembering that only Britain and Ireland have fully opened our borders up to accession countries.

The Times Headline today speaks of a New 'Iron Curtain' as a plea for €190bn from the West to the East of Europe was immediately rejected. The strength of the Union may soon be tested.

This is all very interesting. I wrote about the stability of the EURO recently and I pointed out that in the event of any crisis, it is likely that politics will supersede economics in any decisions that are made.

The impetus of any Eastern EU and any EURO bailout lies with Germany. The EU is based largely on German plans and finances. If a bailout is needed it will probably fall on the Germans to raise and guarantee the required capital. However, it is not clear to what extent the German people are willing to prop up the EU, and so it will be a rocky few months.

Germany has not yet ratified the Lisbon Constitutional Treaty, and a potential €uber-billion bailout will not help the German political classes force it through any quicker. In fact the dialogue has changed somewhat and some of those raising opposition to the Treaty are looking at the possibility of opt-outs and a break mechanism so as to limit the costs to the EUs biggest contributors. If a succession of Economies began to collapse in Eastern Europe the IMF may not have sufficient reserve to react.

Absent from all of this are Britain and France. France may make a token contribution if all others do, but Britain is getting deeper and deeper into debt through borrowing in an effort to kick-start the financial industry. Germany will not act alone if an Eastern EU bailout is needed, and no one else, including Britain will likely have much in the way of the funds to help. Personally I hope we are not asked, because I do not trust this government to overstretch yet further our increasingly fragile economy.

I would imagine any German led deal would require two conditions. Firstly the big contributors to the EU will need to stump up a share to make it easier to sell to the German people and secondly the Germans then may force some form of direct taxation on the people of the EU to guarantee The EU it's first direct revenues. The harmonising and central collection of VAT has been mooted in the past.

I wouldn't mind making a prediction, well a pushing a theory really. If we look at my previous post, and at the events of the weekend it looks more and more (to me) like we are seeing the first real tensions on EU membership. If the Eastern European Countries need a bailout then they may need to look to Russia or America, and the necessity and politics of any deal may preclude continued EU membership.

Likewise if Ireland's economy was to crash, they might find themselves required to act outside of the Central Banks economic rules, and if things get really bad may need to leave the EU altogether. There has always been a large proportion of people in the UK that would welcome much looser ties as well. So what could result is the formalisation of a Central European State and around the edges those exiting member nations may turn back to trade agreements, rather than Union membership. The umbrella of EFTA membership may allow for this to happen with as little pain as possible.

Those nations who have long yearned for their superstate will get their wishes and can have all the trappings of their Federalist dreams, they have a currency already, and all the buildings and courts are in place. They may even be prepared to help Italy and Spain as part of the deal. It could eventually be a win/win situation as those countries who look most in trouble are those where a dissenting voice to a Federal Europe are most heard, UK/Ireland, Scandinavia and Eastern Europe.

Is The Euro In Crisis?

There is some good debate going on over at the DT from Ambrose Evans-Pritchard, who asks if the Germans are ready to give up on the EURO here; and from Daniel Hannan who asks if the EURO will survive here.

The crux of the argument is that the Germans will have to make a financial commitment to prop up the EURO if it is to survive... this is of course not solely an economic argument with the politics and Maastrict laws being big factors.

Go read, all good stuff.

Ultimately, I feel the EU will put politics before the economics or existing treaties and laws. We know this, because this is exactly what it has always done in the past. So in my mind it is more a question of how long the Irish, Portuguese, the Greeks and the Spanish can hold on. To my knowledge none of these national governments is looking seriously at alternatives to the EURO. Italy seems to be making up the new acronym of PIIGS.

I really doubt that Spain, Portugal or Italy will be allowed to default on any debts or succeed from the financial union. I don't know enough about Greece to comment, but there has been public uprisings there so it will not be a straight forward fix. Greece, I feel will be better suited to recovery by taking national decisions, rather than trying to fit in to the EU's decisions. Ireland has friends in the UK and the US, so if they go first the EU might pass the buck to the IMF. I must however confess as I have done so before, don't bet the farm on my economic outlook.

I want to see an end to the EU integrationalism and the EURO crashing has long been the best hope for this; though I really do not want to see allied countries in financial dire straits. I got married in Ireland last year and I am sad to think of how this might affect the fantastic people there.

The UK economy is in trouble, but those of us who fought hard to retain economic independence are being proven right. It was the right decision because the economics were put before politics... let's hope the EU does the same.

My EU Scepticism

I blogged earlier here, mostly to link to Rupert Matthews piece on ConHome.

Part of the reason I wanted to start my own blog, was because I wanted to understand and influence peoples opinions on the the EU through debate; and to be able to reach a wider audience than I could just by posting on various MSM sites. However, I am under no illusions of this particular blogs reach.

So let me tell you this. My EU Scepticism began whilst I was studying at University. In an economics assignment we had to look at the proposed single currency. At the time, Britain had not all together ruled out of participation. I had in my teens been enthused by the idea of European Co-operation, and putting in place economic structures across the EU to rival the USA. It became clear through actually looking further than the news headlines that the UK would need to give up monetary and economic independence to be a participant. The price of participation was and is too high.

It is my belief that the more you read into the subject of the EU, the harder it is to like and appreciate it. It did not take long for me to recognise that the European Project was a one-way implementation whereby member nations gave up more and more to a central legislative, executive and judiciary. I find myself outraged some times at the extent of sovereign control that has been assumed by the EU over the UK without the UK populace having been consulted electorally. Power, is supposed to emanate from the people, not be accumulated centrally for control of the people.

The secretive and subversive manner in with the EU has gained control over the lives of the people of Europe should not go unquestioned. But it mostly has. Successive Conservative and Labour Governments have practiced subservience to the EU. Hardly inspirational is it? Make no mistake, it is not just the EU, it is Westminster.

Eventually, most ordinary people grow to dislike the EU. It is by realising this that we can account for the UK position (at home). Broadly, those who oppose it are largely people who have looked into it, who have been stung by it.

Those who actively support the EU are largely career politicians, and/or people who see professional & personal economic benefits. There are also those who see the potential for enforcement of a socialist state. The don't knows, in UK polls typically out-number the people in favour of the EU, especially when a hard question is asked such as for or against continued membership. These undecideds are the people that need to be awakened to the points in this particular debate, people have a remarkable capacity to form opinions when those opinions are deemed to matter.


My EU Scepticism started with and has grown since that project. I would very much like to hear why it is you are for or against the EU. I am also interested in what you think the UK should do on The EU, on Lisbon and on the EURO.

Weekend Reading

Learning a little more about the British Constitution

Guido has found something odd in the banking bill. Guido asks if this the Government trying to hide the fact that it will be printing bank notes faster than Mugabe. Having read this, I am wondering if we there will be any checks left that the notes are being printed by the BoE.

Daniel Hannan says Labour has spent £43m preparing Britain to join the EURO.

and bad news for families being reported at the Times.