ITV / Comres Poll

The first poll after the debates is out and there is a big twist

Conservative - 36%
Lib Dem - 35%
Labour - 24%
Others - 5%

The two big questions are, how solid is this for the Lib Dems and how would a General Election affect Parliament in terms of seats?

I think it is still hung parliament territory, but with the Lib Dems and Labour much closer together with the Conservatives way out in front.  Tellingly, Labour face a massive electoral advantage, so an 11% advantage for the Lib Dems and 12% to the Conservatives may still not be enough to relegate them to third in terms of seats.

The good news, perhaps now for as many as 76% of us is that the Socialists and Gordon Brown are now on the fast train to oblivion.

Update:  Oh Dear, the above is the "unweighted polling" and Adam Boulton on Sky says it leaked via Twitter when an ITV Journalist tweeted the raw data.

Update 2:  A lesson for us all.  Comres have rushed out the "real" results.

Conservatives - 35%
Labour - 28%
Lib Dem - 24%
Others - 13%

The weighting is done to ensure that voting weight for things like age and race samples from raw data are taken to match (or massaged) national samples... all in all, weighted polls are much more reliable than raw data (which is why the media pay for professional sampling to be done)

Overall, still in hung Parliament territory, with the Conservatives in the high 200's, Labour in Mid 200's and the Lib Dems's gaining to about the 70's. 

There are more twists and turns to come, but the story could be (with more polling) that the Lib Dems are starting to take Labour voters; it is the Conservatives that need to do this for an overall win. 

My Thoughts On The EU Election Results

Firstly I should start by confirming, I did cast my vote for Jury Team as I had stated, and I am proud to have done so. I am of course disappointed that they have not won any seats, but I think their presence in the race had a big effect.

With the expenses scandal and the Jury Team running open primaries there has been a working comparison and calls for re-selection in certain wards. I would of course go further and re-iterate my desire for wide spread open primaries (or at the very least Party caucuses). I have read much in the last year on a lot of blogs about the need for more Independents in our legislature and the Jury Team has satisfied those calls and I think will also have an influence on the debate when we finally get a General Election.

Let us also not forget another of Jury Teams big principles, the elimination of the Whip system, which in this Parliament has enabled much unpopular legislation be passed, not leased the Lisbon Constitutional Treaty. We have not heard the last from Jury Team.

Moving up through the parties, I think the Greens did well, both they and the BNP received a straight transfer of votes from previous Labour voters. I am disappointed that the BNP has won seats, but it was bound to happen one day with the PR and Party List system. I cannot bemoan them for getting elected, it is for everyone who disagrees with the BNP to now hold a mirror up to them, their policies and activities. There emergence in mainstream politics means they have to work with the same rules as everybody else, only effective head-on debate and door-step politics will defeat them. It is often said we get the politicians we deserve, and perhaps that will become an apt phrase when reflecting on the BNP and this result.

I suspect the Lib Dems will be claiming that they did OK, but the truth is, they should have over taken Labour given the national mood. By some metrics they were close, but “close” is not good enough. With smaller parties around such as UKIP & the Greens they are not viewed as a sensible protest vote. They can perhaps be heartened that the result suggests their hardcore vote is close to matching Labours at present.

UKIP did very well and have on the whole had a good campaign. I may feel a bit foolish for again saying this openly, but I think they could get a few Westminster seats at the next General Election, and they certainly have some momentum from which to build on and a sound platform on their key issue. If they can make the General Election about the EU, and keep the Lisbon Treaty in the news then I do think they can make it a big 4 in UK politics. They may nick a few Tory votes on the way, but I think they will also nick quite a few Lib Dem ones in English regions.

There are some murmurings from the grass-roots about Nigel Farage’s leadership – I think UKIP should back Farage, not least because this is a solid result, but also because he is generally seen as likable generally performs well on TV – I am not sure UKIP have anyone as recognisable who could step into a void and do as well in what could be an impending General Election. The flip side is, if UKIP fail to make an impression in Westminster Elections they could soon be eternally doomed as a single-issue party – a label their rival parties are keen to attach already.

The Conservatives have had a fab night, and we were treated to another great Hannan TV moment when he broke into Dr Seuss. There is an argument that they could have done better, but I think given the temptation to use a protest vote, and their reluctance to speak about the EU in the preceding 4 years and 11 months, that it was a sound performance and there will be some vindication on their decision to leave the EPP grouping, which I think was the right thing to do, if a little late. The Centre right seems to have done measurably better than the centre left across Europe, whether they are in or out of power nationally, so it would be wrong for our Labour party to suggest this is simply another EU election that favoured the opposition party.

I expect that the usual Labour faces are doing the rounds on TV today [I am at work, so no TV…] saying that they do not view this result as a vote against them, but the truth is it is. Firstly, both they and the Lib Dems are wildly out of step with the views of ordinary people on the EU. They of course fear consultation on all issues relating to the EU as they see benefits that suit their politics and make decisions based as such. However, people have voted democratically and much more that 50% of that vote went to EUsecptic, or anti-EU parties. The contempt for Labour that they have and undoubtedly will show by pretending that this is not a direct message is one that now is widely recognised.

Labour are a dying party, then need to amputate a vital limb if they want to survive at all. There is still (to my continued bemusement) general support for the Labour Party, and their policies. There is no confidence however in their leader, one G. Brown. There is no opposition and no opinion poll that doesn’t back the idea of replacing Gordon Brown.

I think it is not an unfair or inconceivable statement that Labour could be relegated to the being the third party of British politics if they cannot reverse their fortunes. Last nights elections confirmed that they are polling half of the Conservative vote and could easily lose competitive battles with the Lib Dems. The Conservatives are now electable throughout the UK again, and have an appealing brand and leader. The Labour Party must break the habit of the last decade of believing they know better that the information they are being told from voters, it is an unattractive and distasteful trait that we have had to observe far too frequently. Labour Councillors were screaming during Fridays count that their experience on the door-step was that national politics was killing their vote. In other words, the Labour Grass-roots were confirming that this was a series of elections that reflect the voter’s mood towards the National Government. This was our vote of confidence. The Government failed.

If there is any semblance of dignity; any desire left to put those they serve above their own personal ambitions then the Parliamentary Labour Party need to move against their leader tonight. They need to leave him with no doubt that they are prepared to put the electorate before their party leadership; if it can still be described as such, the “decent option” should be presented as resignation. If Gordon still in charge by Wednesday, Labour will certainly face the prospect of setting an unwanted prescient of having Parliament vote to dissolve itself; a legacy that may never be recovered from, and not something that will stand as a shining example in the history books.

My final point is not about the parties but about the coverage. The BBC was late in putting a show up which is disappointing. However, the Iain & Hopi show was very good and I shall definitely make a point of tuning in again. Their coverage of the local results was very interesting and quite revealing. I was flipping between Play radio, Sky News and the BBC whilst live blogging over on A Tangled Web – by 2am I was very a very tired man but satisfied with the overall coverage available.

Opinion Poll - Labour In Third Place, Brown Lacks Grass-Root Support

Looking over at the Times today I have seen the first opinion poll information for the EU elections has been published, the Times analysis is here.

The talking points are that Gordon Browns Labour Party are heading for third place in both the EU and local elections, dropping 9% to the Conservatives. Where The Lib Dems are holding firm on 27%, Labours drop will see them fall into third. UKIP still sit fourth, and the much written about BNP are seventh, still behind the Green Party, just. Jury Team seem not to have yet registered any support.

I would suggest that if the Governing Party is finishing third in local and EU elections it is a clear revocation of the flimsy mandate that currently exists. A Third place finish will see the UK in a position whereby the PM is unelected in a national ballot and by his own party; the governing party is legislating to the opposite as set out in its own election manifesto and a nation whose electorate have voted a clear indication of no confidence in the governing party.

Add in to this the current expenses revelations, which may all be out in the public domain by next week, but the story will run and run. There is a lot of MP's who's chief weakness in campaigning for re-election either has graced the pages of the Daily Telegraph this week, or will do so in the next few days. More and more cabinet members are looking very uncertain to be returned the longer Gordon Brown stays in charge.

David Cameron and Nick Clegg have in recent weeks shown that they are both much more in touch with the mood of the country than the PM. This weekend has seen the cabinet take a stubborn line on MPs expenses. This was unfortunately to be expected. However, if a different tact is adopted by David Cameron he would probably find even more favour with the country.

This is one of those odd issues where he could be more appealing to core Labour voters than a Labour PM. Working class Labour wards are some of the poorest in the country, they share the wider disdain in these expenses revelations. As I said before, this is a class issue, but not along the standard class lines; it is the political classes versus everybody else. The You Gov Poll showed that 24% of Labour voters think Gordon Brown is doing badly, only 7% think he is doing very well. I repeat, that is Labour voters, not overall. Just 7% of Labour voters think he is doing very well.

Like I also said recently, there is a feeling that it is not so much when Gordon goes now, but a question of who it will be that triggers the leadership bid. The Chief Whip seems to have lost all authority and that means we will see more and more disillusion and rebellion from with the Labour ranks. Charles Clarke seems to want to compete but has not got the support from the Parliamentary Party, but, others may have that support if they decided to challenge.

A few other points from the poll.

41% of Labour, 51% of Lib Dem and 70% of Conservative voters would back a 20% cut in public spending similar to the one announced in the 1990's in Canada.

There seems to be very little support from any party-aligned voters to the governments Royal Mail proposals and much support for the right to allowing Gurkha's settle in the UK when they have served in the protection of the UK.

Labour / Lib-Dem Coalition?

Is this a harmless poll or the grass roots being sounded out?

Previous Lib/Lab coalitions are, in my opinion the main reason why the Lib Dems are still the third party in British politics, as when things get bad for Labour the Lib Dems jump in. By accepting coalitions in the past they have sewn themselves into the position of the Third Party.

Should the possibility arise, I hope the Lib Dems take their chances and try to overtake Labour in the polls instead. Thing is, I really do not anticipate there being a hung Parliament now, the time and opportunity to fight for that has now passed Gordon Brown by. In my opinion, it is damage limitation from here on.

Also, In a hypothetical situation I suspect Vince Cable and Ming Campbell would be in favour of joining a national coalition, but I do not see Nick Clegg coming on board, so such a move could split, possibly terminally the Liberal Democrats.

Why I Think The BNP Is Winning Votes And Why I think You Should Not Vote For Them

The BNP has won a council seat in Sevenoaks, Kent and with that victory it has brought about more free media coverage then it could possibly have afforded.

I am not a BNP supporter, but I have to say that my position on Freedom of Speech means that I have to accept that in return for that freedom, opinions that I disagree with must also be heard.

It is my opinion that just covering our ears and shouting "la la la" at the top of voice is not going to make them go away; The BNP, and their views have to be defeated by hearing their arguments and proving them wrong. It is not through the BNP educating people that they are winning votes; it is through a lack of education and lack of interaction from the political classes. The BNP is winning votes by listening to people that mainstream parties only pretend to listen to when they need their votes.

Mainstream politicians are failing, and in a free, democratic society their failures allow for other people to stand up and have their say. Not so long ago UKIP came along, and snatched a lot of disgruntled Tory votes away. They have held many of those votes.

The BNP has been around longer than UKIP but is doing the same with the Labour Party. Labour has never before had 12 years in power to become so universally disliked, now that they have there is plenty of areas of disenfranchise for new voices to be heard on. I am told that on people’s doorsteps the BNP line is that "We are the Labour Party your parents voted for." You can't tell me that they can get away with that in Labour districts without a total lack of engagement from the Labour Party and a total lack of hope and respect in the Labour leadership.

I drew the analogy with UKIP. I am likely to give UKIP my vote at the upcoming European elections. The presence of UKIP has over a period of time kept me from joining the Conservative Party. The Conservative Party is wrong in its support for the EU. I largely support the Conservative Party's ideals but support for the EU is completely incompatible with conservative values of democracy and individual freedom.

If UKIP did not exist we would have to invent it because the Conservative viewpoint is wrong. Every time someone votes for UKIP they are also voting against The Conservative Party. David Cameron could win back thousands of UKIP supporters by promising a referendum on Lisbon regardless of what stage it is along the route to ratification, and by doing as he promised to pull the Conservatives out of the EPP-ED. It is disenfranchisement on this point that has people moving to, or at least lending their votes to UKIP. It is easier to understand this than it is when the BNP wins votes from Labour.

The BNP is hoovering up votes from Labour supporters. Labour grass roots are looking at their communities and the see political failures. They have heard the sound bites from their Labour Party on TV and in the Newspapers and they do not see the delivery on the ground. They hear the promises over and over again, and each time is a fresh failure. Labour has failed. They will not vote Conservative, because they do not think that will help, and because Labour has drilled the message of Conservatives being an enemy, rather than an alternative. So when the BNP turns up and talks about their concerns being the same an accord is struck. They are speaking to Labours forgotten electorate, and they are doing it with a native tongue. Their parents voted Labour because Labour was putting workers first; the BNP has tweaked the message. Consider this, who would seem more at home in a working man’s club, David Milliband? Peter Mandleson? Jack Straw? or Nick Griffin? Labour is seen by many as no longer putting the Working Class first.

The Lib Dems should have gratefully hoovered up Labour protest votes, but their message is too confused. Largely Lib Dems do not know how to speak to the working class, and by being the third party for so long all big left minded thinkers have long since joined the bigger, Labour Party.

Consider this, if Lib/Lab/Con wants to raise £100,000 they hold a glitzy dinner, or speak to one donor, or one union. If you or me or the BNP or UKIP or anyone else wants to raise £100,000 for political purposes it is likely we would have to garner the support of approx 10,000 people all paying approx £10 each. Lib/Lab/Con speak to a few people, everyone else would have to speak to masses of people. In doing so, we would have to talk to a lot of people about what we would like to do with their money, and we would have to listen to what they would like done as well. If they don’t like it, they won’t hand over their hard earned cash. Such practices only encourage minority, but well funded people and organisations to be truly influential.

The trend to move away from the big parties will continue, unless they make changes in the way that the parties operate. The way to beat the BNP is to defeat them and their arguments and to listen and act on people’s concerns. It needs to be done on the doorstep. Lib/Lab/Con need to actually start listening and delivering to the people that vote, not to lobbyists, and definitely not to the EU. People know what they want, so politicians should stop dismissing them.

The BNP wants to "Stem the tide on non-white immigration." I say that policies that apply to people based on the colour of people’s skins are stupid. I believe the inference is that White People are better than non-whites, and thus there should be fewer non-whites in Britain. I disagree.

I think that people are individuals and should be judged by their achievements, not their appearance. India produces more Doctors than any other country, and the training and education is of a high standard. If the UK is short of Doctors and The UK needs Doctors to come from abroad to address a shortage, (which is also a failure at home to educate enough students to the required levels and/or a failure to make being a doctor attractive enough to get sufficient levels of people to want to be doctors...) I would prefer we got the best Doctors available and look at their training and abilities to heal people, rather than striking of exceptional professionals on the grounds of their skin colour. To me, the BNP position does not make sense, unless you value the colour of skin above the content of a person’s mind.

I do think that our current immigration policy is failing, but this is because of combined Labour and EU policies that allow people in without jobs in place first, and a steadfast refusal to kick people out who are here illegally. We cannot help people by allowing them in to the UK to live in poverty. The issue is one of maths, not skin colour.

If you condone policies based on people’s skin colours why stop there? Why not hair colour, or eye colour. Why people with turbans and burka's, but not Burberry jackets or the wrong brand of trainer shoe? If appearance is it, then why not a beautiful people’s party and kick all the ugly people out.

What if people refused to go, what extent are you prepared to let your policies be enforced? Should law abiding people then be rounded up and put in prison because you and your government don’t like the way they look or the way they talk? Please, don't jump on board this particular band wagon, as when the people in power suddenly turn their attentions on you, there may be no one left to fight for you. Elected officials and governments always use the powers that are granted to them, they very often abuse them. People should not be afraid of their Governments, for there in lies tyranny. Governments should be afraid of its people for there in lies Democracy.

If you don’t like what the mainstream parties are doing, then shout and scream until they start acting better, or change parties (you are allowed to.) If that doesn’t work, start your own party or stand as an independent. But do it on principles and values that can work, not by using race or the politics of hatred. For a start, it’s not nice, secondly because if you purport such methods, then be prepared for them to also be used against you, and thirdly because we can all do better, and we can all expect more from our government, but we have to be prepared to hold our politicians to account. Because if we don’t and they think they can get away with something, they will always disappoint. Let us all ask for more substance and fewer soundbites.

All of which is just my view and my opinions. I do not want people to vote BNP, but people need theor voices and concerns to be heard. I am sure you will let me know where you feel I have gone wrong.

Last Year of Labour Government??

In the next year, it is inevitable that Gordon Brown is going to be looking to define himself and his Labour Party for a general election, probably in 2010, but possibly late in 2009.

I am not sure that there is much to the rumour that Gordon Brown is courting the Lib Dems for a coalition government. Although I would not be surprised at all to see Ming Campbell appointed as speaker before this Government leaves power. Only so it is that much longer before a Conservative Speaker can then be appointed.


It has got me thinking about what we might expect from the Government this year. Despite the possible admission to themselves that they can not win an overall majority, I do not expect this fact will get in the way of the Labour Machine. So if they are thinking that they will not win, I suspect that we will see a Labour Government that is setting itself up for opposition. I suspect that we will a lot of legislation passed through parliament, despite a policy-light Queens speech this year.


We will also see a lot of Gordon Brown travelling the world to meet world leaders and attend summits. It is of course the year of Obama, so there will already be summits for every conceivable world issue, and The PM will be there grinning as only he can and trying to look like a Statesman.


I think what we will see is a co-ordinated assault. We will see positive discrimination laws enacted, we will see a last ditched and hurried changes to the constitution process, probably Lords reforms, but possibly Jack Straws Bill of Rights. All designed in a manner that will best suit the Leftie parties. Possibly the promise of Proportional Representation in a wholly elected Lords. We will see un-affordable increases in the state promised to schools, hospitals and local government.


We will also likely see pressure applied on Ireland to ratify the EU Constitutional Treaty, the Conservatives will make overtures that they oppose this, and the fact that Ireland will vote twice when the UK has not had the chance to vote at all. But it will be a luke-warm protest. There will also be an increase in state dependency for income, both through increased unemployment, but also widening of the criteria on incapacity benefits.


After the eventual election, the Conservative Government will need to cut these additional spending splurges, repeal legislation and talk about the EU. They will need to get Parliament working and accountable again - and they should do so in a manner that it is fair and balanced; not as Labour has done to suit the party in power as the public will forever be subjected to uneven Government. They may need to also ask people that are able bodied to go to work.


My point is, that the Conservative Party right now, is not making a strong enough case for smaller Government. They are not explaining that it is possible to spend less on the NHS, whilst not increasing waiting times for operations. The Conservatives may be talking about this Government borrowing excessively, but they have not set out strongly enough what they would be doing differently. And of course, they dare not speak about the EU, just in case anybody is listening. And as such, they are potentially handing themselves some limitations when they do return to power. They will likely spend the first two years being attacked if class sizes increase or if they fail to cut, what could potentially be very high levels of unemployment right away.


The Labour Party and the PM and Peter Mandleson will be Bold in 2009, they need to be if they are to have any chance in winning an election. Nick Clegg will need to be smart and decisive to see that the Lib Dems don't get smashed in an election and absorbed into the Labour Party. So David Cameron will need to be bolder, determined and more dashing than ever. Right now, in my humble opinion, what the Conservative message lacks the most is the conviction of Hope that they can turn this country around and make things permanently better for families.