Conservatives - 39%
Labour - 22%
Liberal Democrats - 21%
Others - 18%
This poll would give somewhere around a 170 majority to the Conservatives demonstrating how crazy the current boundaries disparity is, and how different pollsters are able to predict wildly different political scenarios every few days by using slightly different methods and weighting. This is a new polling firm, and a healthy 2,000 were sampled. UK Polling Report already has written this up, and they confirm that the pollsters weighting disadvantages Labour, but only very slightly.
Right, now the interesting point on this poll, 18% is a hefty number for the "others" which has generally been sitting anywhere between 12% and 15% for a while, except for a few weeks around the EU elections. I suspect the biggest chunk goes to the SNP, but what is the UKIP number? That is going to be telling in the next election as potentially 2 in 3 new UKIP voters will be drawn away from the Conservatives; or at least, that would be my prediction.
I wonder what the number is that UKIP need to poll before the Conservatives start to look over their shoulders (if they are running polls that splits the "others", and I think it is a safe assumption that they do). I think from memory UKIP polled a little over 2% at the last General Election, so anything around 5% would be I think a fair improvement at this point, but anything higher still must be a concern for their opponents. And not just with the Tories; UKIP will be looking to unseat Liberal Democrats in the South as well. UKIP will not be winning this election, but they are looking like the party that costs others key seats at this election. They don't need a leader to be out campaigning for them, especially when "Cast-Iron Dave*" keeps driving the EUsceptics moving away from voting Conservative.
170 Majority at the top end, and a niggling annoyance growing at the other.
I look forward to reading other bloggers opinions on this, but in the morning.
*This seems to be the settled nickname for him on the blogosphere now.