Monday, November 23, 2009

New Poll Tells A Different Story For The Tories

From Politics Home, a poll by Angus Reid

Conservatives - 39%

Labour - 22%

Liberal Democrats - 21%

Others - 18%

This poll would give somewhere around a 170 majority to the Conservatives demonstrating how crazy the current boundaries disparity is, and how different pollsters are able to predict wildly different political scenarios every few days by using slightly different methods and weighting.  This is a new polling firm, and a healthy 2,000 were sampled.  UK Polling Report already has written this up, and they confirm that the pollsters weighting disadvantages Labour, but only very slightly.

Right, now the interesting point on this poll, 18% is a hefty number for the "others" which has generally been sitting anywhere between 12% and 15% for a while, except for a few weeks around the EU elections.  I suspect the biggest chunk goes to the SNP, but what is the UKIP number?  That is going to be telling in the next election as potentially 2 in 3 new UKIP voters will be drawn away from the Conservatives; or at least, that would be my prediction. 

I wonder what the number is that UKIP need to poll before the Conservatives start to look over their shoulders (if they are running polls that splits the "others", and I think it is a safe assumption that they do).  I think from memory UKIP polled a little over 2% at the last General Election, so anything around 5% would be I think a fair improvement at this point, but anything higher still must be a concern for their opponents.  And not just with the Tories; UKIP will be looking to unseat Liberal Democrats in the South as well.  UKIP will not be winning this election, but they are looking like the party that costs others key seats at this election.  They don't need a leader to be out campaigning for them, especially when "Cast-Iron Dave*" keeps driving the EUsceptics moving away from voting Conservative.

170 Majority at the top end, and a niggling annoyance growing at the other.  When If the Conservative number contracts, we will have a very interesting story.

I look forward to reading other bloggers opinions on this, but in the morning.



*This seems to be the settled nickname for him on the blogosphere now.

6 comments:

Tarquin said...

polling is pretty daft - on the one hand it's supposed to be translated into how many seats will be won - which only applies to labour and the tories

and on the other hand it's proportional support, despite the fact that 'others' will never get as many seats as the lib dems, even if they were polling the same or more

All we need to know is that 'tories winning - polls probably right'

Daniel1979 said...

Tarquin

I think you're bang on, the polling is going to be daft leading into the GE when small swings make such a big difference to the seat count.

Each side will pick up on the polls that best suit their arguments, but this is nothing new.

I think the "Others" column will be the interesting story of this election. 1. How will the Conservative arrangements in Northern Ireland affect the balance, 2. How will the SNP do against Labour in Scotland, 3. How will UKIP fare in England against Tories/Lib Dems.

tapestry said...

The change in results with Angus Read showed ''Others'' gaining from Labour, not from Conservative since they last polled.

The ''UKIP booming'' narrative is as wrong as the Hung Parliament narrative which MORI's poll was constructed around.

The myths are all aimed at hurting Cameron who goes from strength to strength regardless.

The Boiling Frog said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
The Boiling Frog said...

This poll is in line with most of the others over the last year or so; that the Tories have a comfortable double digit lead over Labour and look set to win.

What is interesting recently though, is before 'cast-iron' Dave's about turn, the Tories were consistently polling in the 40s, but ever since they've dropped, with the exception of two polls, to below 40 whilst the 'Others' has increased.

The 'boot Brown out' factor has probably prevented this from being more significant but it is an indication that Cameron is going to have problems with the EU issue in a few years time.

Daniel1979 said...

I think there is kind of a shuffle effect going on, rather than a straight switch in voting allegiance; whereby The EU policy pledged by the Conservatives solidified some of the votes that were being chased from Lib Dems, but mostly from those middle England New Labour voters who switched in recent years.

However, at the other end of the Conservative voter’s spectrum, the EU Sceptic and potentially more Thatcherite blocs are moving away, or at least flirting with other parties.

I think overall it is whoever wins the Centre that wins the election, because that is always the case in the UK. Cameron has the middle ground... He is winning voters from Labour in the Centre. His announcements and policy are all aimed at winning those arguments. But, whilst Cameron is chasing these voters, the ones he inherited are feeling a bit ignored and are looking away from the Conservatives but these in my opinion are not the former Labour voters.

I form this opinion from not just the opinion polls, but from the general feelings being expressed in comments sections of other blogs and media outlets. It is not terribly scientific, but just my reading on how things are.
However, it is my guess, and I may be wrong that this will be more visible as more polls come out in the next few weeks.