Monday, March 15, 2010

Now 44% Want Hung Parliament

The Guardian/ICM poll has been released early tonight - or at least I should say I am acustomed to seeing new polls at 10pm rather than at tea time.

The scores on the doors:

Tellingly the Guardian open their report with this line:

The prime minister's deep unpopularity is continuing to harm Labour's election chances...

It is a bizarre situation we are in today, the Guardian does not want Gordon Brown but does want a Labour win, Core Tories distrust David Cameron and hope that either he will offer some more Conservative policies, and are prepared despite their deep dislike of the Prime Minister to lend their votes to others or stay home because David Cameron is not Tory enough for their tastes.  The British Government that rightly fought to retain a degree of fiscal and monetary independence from Brussels because we feared that association with the EU would ruin the UK economy and yet it transpires that the EC is ready to issue a warning to Britain that it's sums don't add up and we need to cut our debt deeper and faster.  For the first time ever I find myself agreeing with the Commission.

Indeed we are in bizarro world. 

And it all leads up to what I have written in the past and have more polling on today that people are looking to engineer a hung Parliament because we ain't happy with what's on offer and do not wish to grant any party 5 years.  Sunday's polls put it at 34% in favour of a stalemate, today's ICM has it at 44%.  The Guardian know that Labour made the mistake in not actually having the stomach to oust Brown, and it is hurting them in the polls still; but the door should not be considered slammed shut for the Conservatives they can move and increase their share of the vote still.

Certainly the first party to strike a real chord could make big gains.  Labour seem content to Tory bash, and make announcements of policy based on how they feel they can frame or more often deflect the arguments during Prime Ministers Questions.  The House of Lords reform announcement is clearly to set up Browns attack this Wednesday.

The Guardians mood tonight stems from the personal polls between David Cameron and Gordon Brown where David Cameron spanks Brown in every category including a 14 point lead on the question of who would make a more competent Prime Minister.  Cameron has a 31 point lead on the man who has the support of his party which given the plots against Brown is unsurprising.

It is of course crazy that the Conservatives are polling 40% to Labour's 31% and stare still at a Hung Parliament; further more it is deeply unfair.  For all the talk of a Hung Parliament, it is shocking that this is not a more prominent story in the papers.

1 comment:

Witterings From Witney said...

Yes Daniel, a hung parliament - but is that 'seat-wise' or 'suspended by chicken wire wise'?

Lets go for the latter option!