There has been much ink spilt over this already and I have no desire to rehash the arguments; despite which the events of recent days were why 24 hour rolling news was developed for and my words might be out dated before I smash 'enter'.
Lets me get the key points clear as I see them.
One. Gordon Brown has not resigned. He said he had no desire to stay on any longer than needed. He is still in number 10, I am not rejoicing. Like the horror movies, dead does not actually mean dead once the film rolls on a bit. Until he is actually gone, there is no cause for celebration. Remember this is the man who fell for Blair’s offer of a later resignation only to have Blair go back on it; if Brown can pull off a rainbow coalition with himself at the helm, you can be guaranteed that the come the time he is expected to go he will find some crisis or other in which to justify a u-turn. To be honest though I do not believe any such Rainbow coalition has any legs.
Two. Thankfully some Labour stalwarts actually did care to listen to the electorate and they know that Brown, Mandelson et al are putting themselves above the Labour Party and the electorate in trying to stay on for a bit. The only explicit message the electorate delivered was that Brown had to go.
Three. The Tories put too much on the table and built up the idea of a stable long term option in the minds of the electorate and now they look like they have been done. That was for the Lib Dems to offer. They have demonstrated a degree of naivety that the Lib Dems predictable are attempting to maximise for their own advantage.
Four. If a Queens speech cannot be agreed on or if we go back to the polls again this year the Tories will get their majority. Certainly Labour appear desperate and underhanded, the Lib Dems duplicitous and opportunistic; but more than that, ask any candidate who just lost their deposits and spent a fortune on posters and campaign materials if they want to do it all over again in a few weeks or months and it will soon become clear that there will be lot of areas where there will be much shorter ballot papers.
Elections are like balance sheets and MOT’s, they are a snap shot of a particular moment. If there is another election to follow with uncertainty over who would lead Labour (for which there may not be time this side of an election to get sorted) and with the events of recent days and with a reduced field and a nearly bankrupted Labour Party, there will only be one winner.
So, come on Cameron, this is the time to show your mettle. Call Clegg, remind him he came third and lost seats tell him that time’s up; dare him to try a rainbow coalition – he and Brown can share a Pickford’s van when moving out of their London homes for the journey north. The rainbow coalition will fall short of votes because there are a good few Labour MPs that have and will openly not back it.