I have pretty much missed all of the PBR reporting today because of work (however, I am more grateful to still be in work that to have had the time to have caught it though!) I did catch a brief summary earlier online at the end of lunch so I kind of have a feel for what I will be heading home to on the news tonight. In my mind, it is not too important to know the in's and out's this minute, as what tends to happen with the Budget and the PBR is that it takes a few days for the analysts to sift through and find the real details rather than the fluff announced at the dispatch box. I also want to add that it's a good thing as well that the Treasury left the VAT announcement until 9th December, nothing like giving the nation a whole 10 full working days, (plus the Christmas period) to implement an entirely new Tax rate on top of the tax accounting rules due to come into force on 1st January 2010... Very considerate and visionary of the man charged with setting the course for economic recovery.
With the announcements and what it will likely mean, I already feel from behind my veil of ignorance that I will probably be stuck to my previously stated mindset; that the UK will again not be out of recession after Q4, and my guess is that it will be Q2 2010 at least before a return to growth. Though, given how long it we have been in recession and potential impact of the PBR I guess Q1 2010 could be realistic, but I still harbour doubts so will not change my outlook; well, not yet anyway. I am also guessing that in a few days time, when the likes of John Redwood and Fraser Nelson have dug through the details, whatever the top line cut figures are on my TV tonight will actually be revealed to be lower, and/or the proposed tax hikes actually deeper into our pockets... Like I say, I will wait for a few of the better economic journalists and organisations to have a good pick through, as they tend to do a pretty good job these days interpreting these budget announcements back into English.
Another thought occurs; weren’t the online MSM sites promising a big expenses scandal today? Has this been slipped out the back door under the cover of the PBR...? I will have to see about getting online later and having a search for the news (gossip).